October CPI at 8:30 a.m. Eastern is the next macro catalyst, with core CPI at 0.2% as the base case: 0.1% or lower is bullish, 0.2% mixed, and 0.3% a bearish shock. SPY is being watched through a bearish positioning lens, with heavy new put open interest, a broken-and-retested support/ascending structure, and a line in the sand at 750 this week; yields remain the near-term transmission mechanism. NVDA is framed as a high-risk, news-driven long-term opportunity after a series of negative headlines, but the technicals stay bearish until it clears and holds above $200, with downside risk still toward $150 and even a 40–43% drawdown range. The video ends by urging caution on not frontrunning a rebound and by inviting viewers into the Stocks with Josh Discord.
Tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, October CPI is the key event; any hot or cold surprise is expected to hit markets hard.
Core CPI is expected at 0.2%: 0.1% or lower would be cooler than expected and good for stocks, 0.2% likely mixed, and 0.3% hotter and bad for stocks.
Market positioning is in a camp of the bears, with traders looking for a reason to keep selling or at least stay cautious until more data arrives.
Bond yields are the near-term transmission mechanism: higher yields would pressure stocks, while flat or lower yields would let the market wait for more data.
Open interest shows a huge jump in newly entered puts, with SPY downside puts the number one new position as of today.
SPY’s big red candle cut through support in a descending line, then Monday recovered that level and back-tested an ascending structure; failure to get back into that structure is called trouble.
SPY must hold 750 by the end of the week or it is trouble; the current pullback is around 6%, and a move to 714 would make it an 8% pullback, still described as a very mild pullback.
On SPY’s weekly RSI, the watch level is the 40% area; the RSI has formed a V-shape, and only a hold of that V into week-end sets up a move back toward 60% next week.
If the weekly RSI unwinds into 40%, that could create the setup for a test of 714 while everyone is in full-blown panic; if the green this week is only a back-test followed by more downside, that would just reload shorts.
Jensen Huang married Lori Mills in 1985 after meeting at Oregon State, before Nvidia’s founding in 1993.
On November 8, Huang admitted infidelity in a published letter, apologizing to his wife and children and saying he hoped to regain their trust.
A possible espionage link involving Alice Hang, a Chinese business executive associated with NVDA customer Mega Speed, is raised; US intelligence is described as reportedly believing she gathered information for Beijing, while China denies the spying allegations.
Reports that Lori is filing for divorce are called false; as of now she has not filed or hired divorce counsel, while outside lawyers are working for NVDA’s board to check that core secrets were not compromised or stolen.
The market is framed as news driven, and NVDA is described as unlikely to rip back to the upside in a bearish macro tape; the warning is not to take short-dated positions expecting a massive V-shaped reversal.
NVDA is described as down for the count because put open interest is the highest new position, with the added claim that Wall Street tends to press harder when a stock is already being punished.
Despite the damage, NVDA is still framed as a long-term opportunity because it is a market leader, and the claim is that leaders at the top of Wall Street can keep ascending for well over a decade, with AAPL cited as a two-decade example.
NVDA’s weekly RSI history is used for the bullish case: a prior dip below 40 preceded a 150 to 87 drop, a 43% decline, and another slight break below 40 later led to a 149% rally to a new high.
Now RSI is below 40 again, but there has been no reversal and no real bounce, only a little green.
The near-term technical map puts 187, near fib 0.236, as a back-test area; that would still be bearish because bears could reload, and a true recovery requires clearing the fib 0.382 area closer to $200 and holding there.
The 200D MA is framed as an extreme downside target around $150, implying another 40–43% drop is still technically possible and would match the prior drawdown precedent.
Until NVDA gets back above $200 and consolidates, bulls are not in control; the stock could still be making lower lows, and a failure to get above 190 would keep it in the bearish camp with possible pressure toward 150.
To qualify as a full-blown reversal, NVDA would need volume, huge buying interest, and Wall Street rushing back in; retail is warned not to frontrun smart money, and buyers are told that holding through a drop to 150 is fine only if they do not panic sell.
The segment ends by pushing the linked Discord community and a testimonial about joining the Stocks with Josh Discord after investing alongside it.
OpenAI and Anthropic are not mentioned.