BTC is at the 20-week moving average and fully inside the bull market support band, after tagging 70 and then ~$73.5K, but the setup is framed as a likely false-out that gives way to a Q4 midterm-year drawdown. ETH and Nasdaq are cited as confirming the same weekly pattern: tags of the 21-week EMA/20-week area, brief bounces, then loss of support. The core call is stair-step weakness into a larger capitulation later, with the next Fed meeting, around day 94 from the September rate hike, lining up with a possible low in mid-December.
BTC reached the 20-week moving average and is fully within the bull market support band after tagging 70 and then ~$73.5K.
BTC previously tagged the 21-week EMA, bounced, then dropped to the 20-week SMA; it is now bouncing after that 20-week SMA tag.
ETH followed the same weekly pattern — 21-week EMA tag, bounce, second 21-week EMA tag, second bounce, then drop to the 20-week SMA — and is now below the 20-week level.
Nasdaq showed the same sequence, falling to the 21-week/20-week levels, bouncing there, then giving it away.
BTC is expected to lose the bull market support band because Q4 in a midterm year is still in the seasonal weakness window for BTC.
A stock correction is the macro trigger cited for BTC downside; BTC holding up is described as something that often precedes a drop, as seen a couple of weeks ago when BTC started giving it back while Nasdaq and stocks kept falling.
BTC is expected to stair-step down: drop, panic selling, rally, buy-the-rip behavior, then repeat for longer.
Q4 of midterm years is said to usually include a drop that leads to larger capitulation later, with 2015 named as the exception where the drop extended into the start of the following year.
BTC has completely given back the May high.
The 20-week moving average / bull market support band is called just an average, and losing it is framed as a false-out meant to make people think 'this time is different.'
BTC closed back below the 50-week moving average on the weekly timeframe.
Breakouts above the 50-week moving average are called false unless they extend hard like 2019 and 2023; those prior breakouts reportedly led immediately to another ~30% up, while the current one lasted only about 10% or a bit more before being given back.
BTC's behavior is compared to what it did before the SpaceX IPO and now going into the Anthropic IPO, with the idea that people may sell liquid assets to free capital for the Anthropic IPO.
After a September rate hike in a midterm year, BTC is said to bounce and then drop into day 58 on average, then bounce and drop again into day 94 on average; BTC is currently around day 54, putting day 94 in about December.
2018 is cited as a precedent where BTC bottomed around mid-December, around the time of the next Fed meeting, raising the possibility that the next Fed meeting marks the low and may be the last rate hike for a while.
The base-case BTC low structure is described as a February low, a summer low, and a Q4 low; the Q4 low has not been found yet.