Extreme fear, AI-stock weakness, and rising financing pressure frame the pullback as a buying opportunity rather than a crash to fear. The setup leans on history: midterm-year declines, prior fear-and-greed bottoms, and every past bear market eventually making a new high. But the video also argues this cycle has real stress points — inflation, a possible December hike, AI capex funded by debt and dilution, and demand signs that are already hitting REDDIT, INTC, and memory prices. The response is to average in, keep cash, and focus on AI names and the chips behind them rather than trying to time the bottom.
CNN Fear & Greed is at extreme fear: it fell from 45 on Oct. 13 to 18 three days later, hit 6 in March, and 5 a year ago; all seven sub-indicators are flashing fear or extreme fear.
The AI market lost almost $4 trillion in October, while most major AI stocks are down 20%+ from highs and the S&P 500 is only 3% below its all-time high.
Since 1950, the market fell before all 19 midterms, averaging -17% versus -12% in non-midterm years; one year later it was higher every time, with an average +15.1% gain.
Crude oil got close to $120/barrel last week, up over 50% since July, and the video links that shock to prior buying opportunities in MU and ASML after April’s oil spike over $100.
ASML is up 20% and MU is up over 120% since that April oil move, both beating the S&P 500 by a wide margin.
The investing.com-sponsored Tech Titans screen on proixai narrows US tech to 15 names; it currently holds AMD, AMAT, QCOM, and added KLA.
Tech Titans is claimed to have returned over 160% and doubled the S&P 500 in about 3 years since launch.
Warren AI on investing.com uses the same market data as institutional desks, checks its work up to 10 times, and in a senior-analyst KLA readout flagged high multiples, China-sales risk, and a history of selling off after earnings beats.
Gas prices are up 34% y/y and inflation is at 3.7%; core PCE is up 3.1%, its fastest since May, with the Fed having delivered its first hike in over 3 years in September and two members voting for another hike last week.
Markets are pricing roughly a 75% chance of another Fed hike in December, with the next inflation report on Nov. 10, core PCE on Nov. 25, and the Fed decision on Dec. 9.
Lower inflation readings would reduce the chance of a hike; hotter prints would raise it and could push AI stocks lower again.
MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, and META spent a combined $615 billion on buildings and equipment over the last 12 months, including more than $200 billion last quarter, while cash from operations rose just 10%.
GOOGL, AMZN, and META spent more than their businesses generated last quarter, forcing AI funding toward cash, debt, or new shares; GOOGL, AMZN, and META have sold about $200 billion of bonds this year, more than double last year.
GOOGL sold a 100-year bond, called the first tech 100-year bond since Motorola in 1997; META plans up to $97.5 billion of new stock issuance through next year, implying about 6% dilution.
CoreWeave bonds yielded almost 15% last month, versus under 6% for AMZN, GOOGL, and META bonds, leaving CoreWeave with a major financing disadvantage versus bigger rivals.
GOOGL is processing 4x more API tokens than a year ago, while MSFT and AMZN still say capacity is insufficient to meet demand.
NVIDIA H100 rental prices are about 44% above last December's level, and NVDA reports earnings on Nov. 17.
GOOGL search revenue grew 12% y/y, below expectations; the video links the next-day 13% stock drop and roughly $0.5 trillion of value wiped out to Google saying AI Mode makes less ad money than regular search.
RDDT fell 29% on Friday, its worst day ever, after saying Google's AI answers are sending it less traffic; it also warned daily users could fall by more than 10% this quarter.
AI data centers are pulling so much memory that 32 GB desktop RAM reportedly rose from about $80 to around $400, MSFT’s cheapest Surface laptop went from $900 to $1,150, and PC shipments fell 21% y/y last quarter.
INTC expects PC shipments to keep falling next year; INTC fell 29% on Oct. 30, its worst day since 1974.
MU reports in December and is framed as the next update on the memory shortage, memory pricing, and downstream laptop and desktop effects.
First Trust data says bear markets last 11 months on average and fall about 32%, while bull markets last 4.4 years and return 153%; the current bull market is 4 years old and up 114% as of last month.
The video’s own examples: the S&P 500 fell 21.5% over 15 months in 1956 and took 11 months to recover from the bottom; in the pandemic it dropped 34% in one month and took 5 months to recover.
The playbook is to average in more aggressively as prices fall, keep cash, dollar-cost average in and out, use the Fear & Greed index as a signal to get greedier, and remember why each stock is owned rather than panic selling.
Buying the dip is claimed to underperform DCA more than 70% of the time, and up to 97% of the time if exact bottoms are missed; 6 of the S&P 500’s 10 best days in the last 20 years came within 2 weeks of its 10 worst days.
The video sticks to AI and the chips behind it because AI is already sorting winners from losers, especially memory makers and PC makers.