TSLA and GOOGL were the immediate earnings trades, but the bigger call is that this market still needs a deeper flush before the AI-led rally can resume. TSLA missed profit, spent on AI, and got hit hard; GOOGL beat on revenue, held cloud/AI growth, but capex surged and the stock became a setup for short-term sells, put-selling, and LEAPS only after more consolidation. BTC remains the key macro risk: despite ETF inflows and bullish legislation talk, the notes lean on cycle timing, leverage, and technicals to argue for at least one more downside leg, with 56K-53K as the main accumulation zone and 40K still in play. MSTR/STRC is framed as a corporate-structure risk tied to BTC sales, while SpaceX is a separate unlock-driven overhang with August dates that can pressure price before any year-end breakout.
TSLA missed profit, beat revenue, and increased AI spending; shares were “absolutely hammered” on the profit miss.
GOOGL beat revenue expectations, cloud and AI growth stayed strong, but capex surged and that was the big Wall Street concern.
GOOGL initially slipped, then bounced off the 340 fib level; the trade note says it had the stronger chart and stronger earnings and that earnings plays are sell-the-news events.
A TSLA options trade selling calls way out of the money locked in $6,000; a separate high-risk GOOGL trade also went green and locked in $6,000.
TSLA was framed as a long fade pattern: a run from $140 to $480 in 2024, then a full giveback and another run, with a predicted hard sell-off because TSLA tends to run $100 in 30 to 60 days.
The market’s next gauntlet is earnings; the rally was pushed into the end of July and big tech earnings were the test for whether the AI rally can keep going.
Midterm-election-year seasonality was used to argue for weakness: the S&P 500’s average return in midterm years is about 5%, the year after the midterm is described as the best for a president’s four years, and 2027 was called potentially extremely strong.
Bitcoin ETF inflows were said to be accelerating in July, July was described as a good month for BTC, and the Clarity Act was cited as a bullish legislative catalyst.
BTC was still described as a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, with 287 days in the cycle and not enough time passed for a historical reversal; the notes say Bitcoin winter has never ended before 365 days in prior cycles.
BTC technicals were centered on an inverse head and shoulders with a ~72K target, a neckline around 65K, and the 200-day moving average also near 65K; the broader macro pattern was called a falling wedge until resistance breaks.
Leverage on BTC was cited at about 1.5B shorts versus 10B longs, with liquidation risk around 57K; another level given was 56K as the start of serious buying, matching the 350-day moving average on the weekly chart.
BTC bullish-divergence history was used as a timing tool: every bear-market bottom has had a daily bullish divergence, but weekly bullish divergence does not guarantee an immediate reversal; in 2022 the weekly bullish divergence showed up in the week of Sep. 19, not at the November lows.
The preferred BTC base case is still one more leg down: the notes repeatedly point to 53K-50K as the more reasonable bottom zone, while 40K remains a cited bearish call from respected technical analysts.
MSTR/STRC was framed as a risk if BTC keeps falling and STRC dividends force BTC sales; the board was said to have taken control away from Michael Saylor’s all-in approach and can sell BTC to stabilize the business.
GOOGL was also treated as a trading opportunity after the drop: 328 was called the easiest target and the big number for going long, with a plan to sell out-of-the-money puts first, then fund GOOG LEAPS and build into 2027.
SpaceX was treated as an unlock-driven overhang: no buy before the first unlock on Aug. 11, earnings on Aug. 4, first unlock on Aug. 6 for 911M class A shares, and a second unlock near 175 if the stock stays 30% above IPO price for five or 10 consecutive trading days.
SpaceX was seen as tradable only after the unlock gauntlet; the notes describe a failed $222 short attempt, a 2x bear instrument (SSPS) hedge, and a possible bounce back above 135 into end of July before another dump.