BTC remains far below a fair-value logarithmic regression trend line, and the setup is framed as still tracking the 2019 pattern: a four-year-cycle top, an apathetic top-digestion phase, then a bear market that leaves 2026 weak and undervalued for months. The read is that BTC can go lower and still fit the cycle, with the current price/fair-value gap still unusually low by historical standards and only once before lower, around crypto’s earliest days. The broader crypto market is presented as damaged by scams, rug pulls, hacks, and falling retail engagement, which slows adoption even as the asset class matures. After that washout, a fresh bull market is expected, with BTC eventually reaching $10T plus or minus a few trillion.
BTC is still well below a fair-value logarithmic regression trend line, and because that line rises monotonically, sideways price action would make BTC look even more undervalued.
The current cycle still tracks 2019 closely, with the four-year-cycle top lining up with the apathetic top-digestion phase.
2026 is likely to stay very undervalued through year-end because the bear market arrived right after the apathetic top tied to the four-year-cycle top.
BTC could get worse before it gets better, and it could move lower while still staying consistent with the four-year cycle.
The percent gap between the fair-value regression line and current price is still relatively small, but BTC has only been lower versus fair value once before, when crypto first launched.
BTC has existed since 2009, roughly 17 years, and the last time it was this low relative to fair value was in 2010.
Crypto is framed as having a structural problem: scams, memecoin rug pulls, presidential rug pulls, and recent cold-storage hacks that caused some holders to lose BTC.
Those hacks are described as real harm: some buyers did what they thought was right and still lost their BTC, showing the asset class is still going through growing pains.
Retail interest is said to be fading, with falling YouTube views across crypto channels used as evidence.
A proposed fix for the asset class is to rebuke scams and build real things instead of centering ETFs, strategic Bitcoin reserves, and the Clarity Act.
The argument against 'altcoin rug pulls are good for BTC' is that onboarding someone into the space only to have them lose everything makes them unlikely to add more money or research BTC; they leave because they lost money, not because they later choose among the 20 million legitimate coins.
The industry should reward straight shooters instead of people who keep shilling scam after scam, because the asset class needs to retain users, not just bring them in and expose them to the worst outcomes.
The asset class is still in a maturation process and will have to work through many security vulnerabilities, with every industry going through a phase like this.
The four-year cycle is still expected to keep working out, with BTC becoming even more undervalued before year-end and then entering a fresh bull market.
BTC is projected to eventually reach $10T, plus or minus a few trillion.