SPX at 7750 is at new all-time highs, and the core call is that 2026 is tracking prior midterm years: strength can persist for weeks, but a stock correction is more likely in late August or September, with the real question being whether it extends into October-December. The setup is tied to rates and bonds: the 9/16 Fed meeting, 57% pricing for a hike vs 43% no change, 10-year yield at 4.6% with a possible move above 5%, and a 30-year yield already through its October 2023 level. A deeper S&P correction is framed as the condition that could mark BTC’s cycle bottom, with 2014, 2018, and 2022 used as the templates. The preferred response is not market timing but buying low-fee index funds and using drawdowns as entry opportunities.
SPX has broken to new all-time highs at 7750.
2014, 2018, and 2022 all saw stock-market tops/corrections after August: 2014 topped 9/19 with the correction starting mid-September, 2018 corrected from 9/21 and later made a lower high on 10/3, and 2022 topped 8/16 with a lower high on 9/12 and a mid-October bottom.
Those midterm-year corrections were roughly 10% in 2014, 20% in 2018, and about 20% in 2022.
2026 is framed as closer to 2014/2018 than 2022 because SPX has been in a bull market and is breaking out to new highs.
The base case is continued bullish SPX action for a few more weeks, with the tide more likely to shift in late August or September than immediately.
The next Fed meeting is 9/16, and current pricing is 57% for a rate hike vs 43% for no change.
A September hike could trigger a stock correction by making markets fear the easing cycle has ended and a hiking cycle has restarted.
If the Fed waits until December, that could provoke a bond-market revolt; if it does not hike in September, the long end of the curve could keep rising.
The 10-year yield is at 4.6% and is expected to break above 5% and head back toward its October 2023 level.
The 30-year yield has already broken through its October 2023 level.
The larger stock correction typical of midterm years may not start until August or September, and two of the last three did not start until 9/19 or 9/20.
The view is that a correction starting in August or September is only the start date, not the finish; 2018 did not bottom until December, 2014 not until mid-October, and 2022 not until mid-October.
BTC’s market-cycle bottom is inferred from SPX and, in 2014, 2018, and 2022, BTC bottomed during the second stock-market correction rather than the first.
A deeper late-2026 SPX correction could retest the longer-term trend line, with 6,000 on SPX cited as possible and brutal; if that happens, BTC would very likely lose 60K support.
In 2018, BTC held $6,000 all year until the second stock-market correction, while SPX fell only 7% to 8% below its first correction and BTC fell about 48% below its level.
The dollar is down recently but is expected to be forming a higher low and moving back up; DXY is said to be tracking 2017-2018 and could become a later-year headwind for risk assets.