SPY is being framed as still rangebound between 782 and 771, with bears only taking control below 771 and a projected sequence of 771, then 75350, then possibly 800 before a broader rollover. The trade calls are mostly event-driven: Tesla needs 335 breakdown for a bigger flush, NFLX is setting up another pullback trade around 78, NOK is treated as a 2027 turnaround accumulation around 10, and RIOT is a swing setup toward 21-24 on higher lows and a morning-star/volume signal. The week’s macro focus is earnings and consumer-readthroughs: HD on Tuesday, TGT and LOW on Wednesday, and WMT on Thursday, alongside new premarket/after-hours options access that changes how leveraged positions can be entered and exited. SpaceX/SPCX remains a short idea with weak volume on upside attempts, but confirmation still waits on a 1-hour MACD cross down and the trade is not yet profitable.
SPY downside control is only confirmed beneath 771; between 782 and 771 it is still in a flag/channel, with 771 acting as a bounce zone and 782 as the key fib rejection level.
If SPY rejects north of 782 and loses 771 again, the next projected drop is to 75350, with one more leg higher possible from there toward 800 before the market officially rolls over.
TSLA had a doji and evening star on the prior short setup; the short is already deep in profit, but a much bigger flush does not confirm until TSLA breaks beneath 335.
Below 335, TSLA is treated as the trigger for a larger downside move; above 335, position size is supposed to stay more moderate.
SPCX ran to 150 and then pulled back immediately; the weekly candle looked like a shooting star or gravestone, while the day ended with strength and bears still not fully in control.
SPCX upside attempts are coming on very low volume, creating bearish divergence; the confirmation signal being watched is a 1-hour MACD cross down.
The SPCX trade is still open and not yet profitable, with a stop loss planned; SSPC, the inverse ETF on SpaceX, already had 1,000 shares bought.
New options trading hours now allow premarket trading from 7:30 a.m. to 9:25 a.m. Eastern and after-hours trading from 4:00 p.m. to 4:15 p.m., but only limit orders are allowed and stop losses cannot be used outside regular hours.
The early-options list initially includes AAPL, AMD, AMZN, AVGO, BABA, BAC, GOOG, HOOD, INTC, META, MSFT, MU, NFLX, NOK/Nokia, NVDA, ORCL, PFE, PLTR, TSLA, and TSM.
Last week’s CPI and PPI came in better than expected and the market rallied, but retail sales made the market worry about excessive bearish news no longer being read as good news.
This week’s earnings run starts with HD at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Tuesday, then TGT and LOW before Wednesday’s open, then WMT before Thursday’s open as the broadest read on household spending and inflation.
WMT is the key consumer check: strong sales and guidance would ease recession concerns, while weak results or cautious guidance would signal a slowing consumer.
NFLX was sold at 78 and had previously traded from 7380 up to 78, with selling between 78 and 79 called the perfect trade; the current pullback target is 75 to 7380 with 78 now acting as neckline resistance.
NFLX is being watched for an inverse head-and-shoulders structure, with the left shoulder, head, and a possible right shoulder forming around the 78 neckline area.
NOK is being treated as an accumulation/turnaround story: the last time it reclaimed the daily 30 EMA it later moved from about $6 to $17, and the current plan is to accumulate around $10 inside a roughly $10 to $8 range for a larger 2027 payoff.
RIOT is framed as a swing trade, not an accumulation name: higher lows, a morning star candle, and a giant green volume bar suggest hidden buying and a possible move above the 30 EMA toward about $21, then ultimately 20 to 24 with a stop opportunity at the yellow line.