Wednesday is the inflection point: MSFT, GOOGL, and the Fed decision hit on the 28th after a rough month for growth and AI, with a likely Monday-Tuesday relief bounce before the market either rockets higher or sells off again. The setup is framed as bearish on the bears after 4 weeks of punishing retail dip-buying, but the baseline call is that October may already have set its low and November can act as a recovery month. MACD sell signals are flashing across growth, AI, SPY, and other stocks, yet the plan is still to put money to work selectively into names that have been beaten down or are rotating. GLD is the key technical example: support at 364 matters, 332 and 300 are next if it fails, but a hold could send it back to 433 and a W-pattern neckline.
Wednesday the 28th is the week’s main event: MSFT and GOOGL earnings plus the Fed rate decision in the middle of the day.
Growth stocks have been in a rough trend, retail bought the dip for a quick reversal, and those dip buyers got slaughtered over the last 4 weeks.
The near-term path called out is a Monday bounce off the lows, Tuesday going sideways into Wednesday, then Wednesday deciding whether the market rockets higher or keeps selling off.
MACD sell signals are flagged across growth stocks, AI stocks including MU, SPY, and a lot of stocks; the blue line crossing below zero is treated as the first step toward a bigger sell signal.
The low of October may already have been set; in mid-term years the October low comes in 14 out of 24 times, which is framed as a 58% chance the low is in or comes this next week.
If the market bottomed in September or October, the S&P 500 has averaged a 2.7% gain and finished higher nearly 80% of the time in November.
If the Fed lands in line with expectations, the setup is for a return to business as usual, with the baseline still a market that keeps going higher.
Despite flash-crash risk, the plan is to put money to work next week as October wraps up and the market possibly finds an October low with an upward reversal in November.
Oracle is described as beaten down and attractive despite its massive debt problem.
ROCKET LABS is a buy-every-day-below-$50 idea, with the stock vacillating between $50 and $53 and more buying planned going into next week.
PEP is the rotation idea from growth into value, and the position may be grown on a shorter time frame next week.
AVGO is down enough to justify more serious capital allocation after being liked at a slightly higher price.
IONQ is seen as attractive at a discount, enough to give it a chance without calling a bottom.
GLD was entered at 372, ran to a 398-406 target, then a 422 target with a possible move to 433; a stop at 422 is cited as having been a perfect move.
GLD has since fallen back to the original entry area and even below it; 364 is the key support, then 332, then 300 if it keeps breaking down.
If GLD holds and turns up, 433 is the upside target again and also the neckline of a W pattern; the preferred reversal signal is green candles stepping higher, with RSI around 40% as the prior reversal zone.