Near all-time highs, the market is still grinding up while expensive oil, inflation pressure, and higher yields set up the next break; SPY is said to be one headline from all-time-high targets, but the wedge only becomes bearish on a downside break. Bitcoin is framed as still in a winter phase: the current bounce may be a fakeout/bull trap unless it holds structure, then clears a larger liquidity sweep and a later golden cross. The working path is a brief push toward 90K, then a sharper pullback toward 75K and possibly 66K-68K before the next cycle. NVDA is mentioned as already called to $244 off a weekly gravestone doji at historic resistance.
Market is near all-time highs while expensive oil is adding inflation pressure and pushing yields higher; if oil cools and inflation pressure eases, yields could fall and the market could rip.
SPY is described as one headline away from all-time-high targets, still climbing for now despite inflation, oil, and yield pressure.
SPY has a bearish ascending wedge, but it only turns bearish when the wedge breaks to the downside; if the bottom does not break, price is expected to keep chopping higher.
SPY is pushing toward 783 as a fib level and 800 as a major psychological level; a downside break “right here” would imply about 750, while a chop to 800 could later mean about 770.2.
The market is described as making brand new all-time highs day after day, but a breaking point is said to be inevitable and midterm years historically pull back after a change of power.
Midterm-year historical examples cited: 2018 fell 51.8%, 2022 fell at least 19.7%, and 2014 fell 25% after the market reached this late-year inflection window.
Bitcoin is said to be building upward structure and a local higher high, but if it fails to keep that structure it becomes a fakeout/bull trap and can fall back to the bottom of the price.
BTC was shorted at 82,800 “right at the top,” with a target of 75,000 and a separate warning that if 235 is lost, BTC could drop to 225 by this Friday or Monday.
Bitcoin is expected to consolidate briefly, then go higher, get right under 90K, and then make another dive because it needs to pull in liquidity.
A weekly RSI pullback zone is given as 75 to 68,000, described as prior resistance that should become support if the pullback happens.
The structural BTC path laid out is an initial pullback to 75, a run-up to 90, then a bigger drop to 66-68, followed by consolidation there and possibly one more lower low before the next cycle.
BTC’s higher-high pattern is expected to break, with at least one more significant pullback still ahead; the overall market is said to be able to fall 8% to 10% and that test has not happened yet.
A Bitcoin golden cross has not happened yet; once the faster moving averages cross back above the slower ones, the winter is said to be over and the lowest low for BTC will be booked.
A move higher is described as a liquidity sweep that liquidated billions of dollars of shorts, and market makers are expected to do the same to bulls as they continue the “wrecking everybody” script.
NVDA was called up to $244, tied to a weekly candle described as a clear gravestone doji at historic resistance.