BTC is back above $70K at about $72K, but the move is framed less as a clean trend break than a short-squeeze plus Treasury-driven burst that still needs spot ETF follow-through to hold. ETH is strengthening versus BTC, with ETHBTC around 0.03182 and year-to-date still down 12.8%, while institutional interest is shifting toward ETH for staking/yield and a growing “future of finance” role. The macro backdrop is defined by Scott Bessent’s Treasury buyback expansion, $40T US debt, hawkish-leaning Fed minutes, and the idea that Washington picked “door three” on the debt problem by letting the dollar weaken. Gold, oil risk, and crypto all benefit from the same mix of debt, geopolitics, and intervention, but the next sharp market risk is Jackson Hole and whether the Fed turns more hawkish or even signals one more hike.
BTC is back to about $72,000 after a 2.6 billion short liquidation spike; the rally was also kicked off by a Treasury announcement and by people who shorted the initial pump getting blown out.
BTC was flat over the last seven days while the S&P 500 was down slightly over the last five days, feeding the idea of a capital rotation from equities into BTC.
BTC spent time below the 200E moving average before the spike, and buying below the 200-week average — or even a little above it — was presented as the better DCA zone.
The current BTC setup resembles prior cycles, but the key decision point is whether to buy now or wait for a deeper drop below the 200/250/300-week moving averages; 2022 saw repeated breaks below the 20-week, 250-week, and 300-week averages, while 2018 never broke below the 20-week in a similar midterm-year setup.
More spot buying is still needed for BTC to hold the move: over half a billion dollars flowed into BTC ETFs yesterday, but more big ETF inflow days are needed before calling for lasting upside into Q4.
BTC may retrace some of the gain in the next few days even if the bottom is already in; the 65K-67K zone, long resistance, could flip to support for the next leg up.
ETHBTC is around 0.03182, roughly 0.0312 as cited, and ETH has been strong versus BTC since around June while most altcoins have been falling.
ETH ETF flows have been largely positive, exchange balances are declining, and institutional demand is being driven by staking and yield; Tom Lee and Bitmine kept buying ETH and may have materially changed its setup.
A new Ethereum upgrade/hard fork, Hegota, is coming soon, and the improving ETH sentiment was tied to possible strength in ETH and the wider altcoin complex if prior-cycle behavior repeats.
Most altcoins were called worthless and likely to disappear, but utility names tied to stablecoin rails were singled out as having a chance: Binance, Ethereum, Salana, Tron, Hyperliquid, and Canton.
Scott Bessent said Treasury would at least double liquidity-support buyback operations for long-term government debt, running from early September to November 4, the day after the midterms.
The Treasury move was described as an attempt to suppress the long end of the curve, especially the 10-year and 30-year, and as a signal that the administration will intervene to keep bonds quiet, yields under control, stocks up, and volatility down.
US national debt crossed $40 trillion around the day of the discussion; Treasury statistics also showed outstanding issuance up 10% to 18 trillion, with outstanding as of July at $31.5 trillion.
Washington was said to have chosen Nick’s 'door three' for the debt problem: let the dollar weaken, rather than cut spending or let yields run.
Gold’s rally was tied to central-bank buying, not just retail ETF flows: the World Gold Council said central banks added 289 tons in Q2 2024, up 62% y/y and the strongest quarter, exceeding all 2023 ETF inflows in dollar terms.
Gold was also linked to geopolitical risk, $40 trillion of US debt, and the Iran conflict; a prolonged conflict keeps HORM traffic disrupted and supports oil risk, which helps gold stay bid.
Hawkish FOMC minutes, unresolved inflation drivers, and a still-closed Strait of Hormuz keep a rate hike on the table; there are three FOMCs left this year, with November and December still live.
Trump set expectations by saying strong markets or strong economies would expect rate hikes and weak economies would expect cuts, implying the next move is more likely one rate hike than a cut, not a new hiking cycle.
Kevin Walsh’s Jackson Hole speech tomorrow was flagged as a major risk event because he has cut forward guidance and could come out hawkish enough to derail the rally.
New Zealand property is down 30%, UK property has also fallen, parts of Australia are down sharply, and Florida is seeing a huge influx of houses with prices going down.
Next week’s stream moves to Rob’s channel, and questions were invited in comments for possible follow-up coverage.
If the market continues to price intervention, debt monetization fears, and a weaker dollar, BTC and gold remain the primary beneficiaries while ETH gains relative strength and most alts get left behind.