← Tom Nash

The UNTHINKABLE is About to Happen to Stocks (but most will invest wrong)

2026-10-11

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23m

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18 min read

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The core claim: most investors lose money not from bad stocks, but from buying/selling without a system, then mistaking emotion for conviction. The fix is a rules-based framework: buy quality businesses when fundamentals improve faster than price, trim into strength, double down into drawdowns, and never let market noise force decisions. The video uses PLTR, NVDA, DDOG, and BE to show how multi-year winners were bought through volatility, then closes with a 125-point BS filter to separate exceptional businesses from trade bait. It also frames market crashes as normal, not exceptions, and says the real edge is staying invested in businesses while others panic or overtrade.

  • PLTR at $6-$7 was called crazy, then rose 2600%; $10,000 at the video's start is now ~$270,000.
  • NVDA was highlighted in Oct. 2020 as one of the market's best companies; since then the stock is up 1500%, after moving 20 -> 150 -> 94 -> 230.
  • DDOG was added to the academy in January this year and is up 120% since then, moving 133 -> 105 -> 188 -> 293.
  • BE was up 80% in February this year, then whipsawed 156 -> 119 -> 280.
  • The decision rule is: if the business keeps getting better while the price stagnates, price stops mattering; the position decision is pre-made instead of guessed at tops and bottoms.
  • The portfolio since Sept. 2023 is described as 40% PLTR, 40% S&P 500, 20% TSLA, up 1300%; the benchmark is up 75%, and the weighted average is claimed to be up 565%, ~500% ahead of the benchmark.
  • PLTR's full path is laid out as 10 -> 40 -> 23 -> 18 -> 6 -> 17 -> 75 -> 177 -> 200 -> 137 -> 209 all-time highs, with buys at 6, 26, 106, and 137.
  • The framework says not to sell just because a winner is up 100% or 150%; the goal is long-term compounding, not trading 50% or 100% pops.
  • Market crashes are treated as inevitable: 5% drops multiple times a year, 10% at least once a year, and 20% every couple of years.
  • Earnings are the key variable: if earnings keep rising each quarter, stocks should rise; concern starts only if earnings turn south.
  • In April 2025, tariffs came and went, and the S&P 500 is said to be up 54% in 18 months versus its ~10% annual average.
  • Vanguard data is used to say portfolios of $1,000,000+ keep 13% cash, are ~90% invested, are 83% US-centric, 99% never fully liquidate, and hold 92% in long-term positions vs 8% in trading.
  • Trim rules: if a stock is up 50% on paper, trim 10% into a DCA pool; if up 100%, take out 20% and recycle it over 2-3 years.
  • Index DCA rule: if the S&P 500 or NASDAQ is down 10%+ from the past year's high, raise buys from $100/month to $200/$200/$200 until it is only down 9%, then revert to $100/month; stock rule uses a 20% drawdown trigger.
  • If a stock is up more than 20% in 30 days or less, halve DCA from $100 to $50; when down, double down; when up, slow down.
  • The BS filter is a 125-point scorecard: cash vs debt, revenue growth, operating margin, short interest, institutional ownership, scalability, 5-year performance vs the S&P 500, moat, elite CEO, recession-proof model, secular trend like AI, culture, and top-tier talent; 125 is once-in-a-lifetime, 100-125 exceptional, 75-100 watch list, below 75 no bueno.