INTC is framed as a broken chart and a weak fundamental setup: price is down 55% overall, about $80 below the $132 high, and trading around $63-$61 after a failed lower high and lower low. SPY’s break risk is the macro tell: lose 764 and the next downside targets are 750, then 745, with a deeper 714 flash-crash risk if RSI drops below 60 again. The core call is bearish on INTC because next-quarter adjusted EPS is guided to 25 cents from 52 cents, PC weakness is expected through at least 1H 2027, and foundry losses still drag, while the only real bullish rerating would require a supply shock like war or a forced U.S. reliance on Intel foundry. Rotation into better AI leaders is the preferred alternative, with GOOGL and NVDA named as the long-term winners.
INTC is down 55% overall, with 31% of that drop hitting in one day; the stock is about $80 below the $132 high after four months of decline.
After dropping back below 90, INTC failed to reclaim all-time highs, printed a lower high and then a lower low, and is now in the $63-$61 area with trend described as clearly down.
The market setup turns bearish if SPY loses 764: that breaks the bottom of an ascending channel, opens 750, then 740/745, with 745 named as the next bounce zone if next week opens lower.
If SPY falls under the 60% RSI level again, the risk call is a flash crash to 714; the notes say that 60% RSI break happened three weeks ago.
Nancy Pelosi is described as holding 10,000 INTC shares and 50 LEAPS, added on top of 200 existing LEAPS; the position is estimated to be down $1.44 million total, including $884,000 on the day.
Lip Bhutan is described as a major INTC bull buying millions of dollars of stock, owning 10 million shares at a $95 average cost, while also warning that PC weakness should last through at least the first half of 2027.
Donald Trump is described as having recently sold his INTC position, while Michael Bur is actively shorting INTC and said he was increasing risk and leverage to the downside.
A hypothetical estimate says Michael Bur could be up $17 million cumulatively on his bearish INTC position, with nearly half of that made on the day being discussed.
Cramer is described as handing INTC the “kiss of death,” calling it disappointing and saying, “I’m furious about it.”
The bull case on INTC rests on data centers and AI revenue surging 78% to $7.3 billion, plus continued server growth and improving manufacturing.
The bear case on INTC rests on next-quarter adjusted EPS guidance of 25 cents versus 52 cents this quarter, a roughly 52% drop, plus PC weakness through at least 1H 2027 and continuing foundry losses.
The call is bearish on INTC: the notes say Intel cannot become a leader in this space, and that the better long-term AI names are GOOGL and NVDA.
Two support lines are called out on INTC near $61 and $56; $61 mattered as prior weekly resistance and is expected to act as support now.
If INTC bounces off $61, the next target is a backtest to 80 or just below it, but the move is framed as a slow rebuild, not an overnight reversal.
Absent a supply shock like war or a forced reliance on U.S. Intel foundry output, INTC is expected to consolidate between 60 and 50, likely print a five-handle before reclaiming 100, and may struggle to ever regain 100 at all.
Bitcoin is queued as the next topic, with no additional claims or numbers in these notes.