Benjamin Cowen argues Bitcoin is still behaving like a normal four-year-cycle asset inside a broader business-cycle/midterm-year setup, so the current drawdown should be judged as a time-based bear market rather than a broken thesis. He says the move below 60K, the lack of an altcoin rotation, and the slow grind lower all fit prior cycle behavior, with the likely bottom window stretching from late September through mid-December and possibly around late November if 2018 repeats. He repeatedly rejects the idea that Bitcoin is a scam or that the cycle is “different,” saying the same human-psychology pattern has shown up across prior cycles and even resembles the S&P 500’s cycle structure. The final takeaway is cautious accumulation: he has his own DCA plan, thinks long-term buyers should have a strategy, and says the current bear market is near its back 30% but may still have a little further to go.
Benjamin Cowen frames the video as a cycle check on Bitcoin and says he does these "where in the cycle are we" updates about once every 6 or 12 months.
He argues the four-year cycle is not a reason to avoid Bitcoin: the stock market also has roughly four-year lows, the S&P has been a strong long-term investment, and the cycle reflects human psychology, liquidity, and the presidential cycle.
He says Bitcoin tops and bottoms about every four years, and notes that the end of 2025 passed without the euphoric price calls that some expected.
Using cycle counts from lows, he says Bitcoin topped on about day 1,069 two cycles ago, around day 1,059 last cycle, and about day 1,050 in the most recent cycle, which he says shows it topped basically where it always tops.
He says the current cycle is on day 1,354 and the average bear-market bottom is around day 406 versus day 304 now, so Bitcoin is about 34% of the way through the bear market on his framing.
He says a new cycle has likely not started yet, but it is getting close; if someone starts DCAing Bitcoin in the second half of the midterm year, he thinks they will probably be fine long term.
In his bear-market comparison, he says the current drawdown has not been as bad as the last three because Bitcoin did not top on euphoria and there were fewer retail panic sellers, but it is still a bear market.
He says the last two bear markets after post-halving peaks showed Bitcoin trending weak for a while, and he expects the market to stay weak for a few more months because Bitcoin has already been in a bear market for 10 months.
His timing range for the bottom is late September through mid-December: he says Bitcoin might bottom sooner than October, in September, or not until December, and that the prior bear markets all lasted about a year.
He says the 2026 year-to-date path looks like a less volatile version of 2018, with lows and lower highs aligning, and that Bitcoin is still within one standard deviation of the average of the last three midterm years.
He says Bitcoin did not follow the stock market in midterm years before, citing 2018 when Bitcoin fell 73% while the stock market fell 6%, and 2019 when the stock market rose while Bitcoin did not.
He says 2019 is the best macro comparison because Bitcoin topped in June 2019, about two months before QT ended, there was no rotation into altcoins, and there were three Fed rate cuts; he says 2025 is fundamentally similar for the same reasons.
He says the current bear market resembles 2019 in being an apathetic top with social interest trending down and Bitcoin dominance trending up, and he thinks the current decline lines up with that 2019-style downtrend.
He says the cycle is not different just because the decline has been slow: each cycle has moved below the 50-week moving average, then the 100-week, then the 200-week, and in the last cycle even to around the 300-week.
He says his own DCA strategy is already in place, he started buying a little below 60K, and he emphasizes that long-term investors should have a strategy rather than worry about short-term volatility.
He says the Miami ITC conference in late November was timed so that the low will either already be in or be very close, and he expects they will be close to the Bitcoin low if it is not already there; ticket prices go up on September 1st and some lower-tier party space is running out.