Google Trends shows Bitcoin interest near the bottom of its range; retail interest is said to be absent, with retail possibly rotating into AI instead.
BTC is 3.6% lower in October at 80,679, up 670 today (+0.84%); 80,679 is flagged as a critical level to hold into tomorrow.
Sober data shows a big selling spike on Oct. 22, a smaller one on Oct. 23, then slowing; roughly $1.41B of realized losses were locked in as holders exited ahead of the Fed.
The selling is treated as done, with a bounce expected after the Fed meeting tomorrow.
Over 7 days, crypto is mostly red: Binance +2%, ETH -2.7%, BTC -1.8%, SOL -4%; over 30 days ETH -13%, BTC -4%, TRX -2%, LDO -3%, XRP -13.68%, SOL -17%, HYPE -13.3%.
Altcoin ETFs are said to be selling about $8M a day; the ETH ETF reportedly bled more than $100M yesterday, extending a long run of red bars since September.
Tom Lee is buying ETH, framed as a bullish tell for ETH.
Mt Gox pushed its repayment deadline to Oct. 31, 2027, reducing forced-selling risk, but there is concern about whether the coins even exist and about 35,000 BTC being distributed.
Crypto fear gauge is neutral at 48, with last week also around 55 and in the same range.
BTC ETFs were positive yesterday, led by IBIT with $110M of inflow, ending a two-day negative streak.
A Fed backtest on BTC after FOMC meetings shows a 5.9% median gain, a 60% win rate, average wins of 19%, average losses of 10%, and a 1.7x-to-1 payoff.
Since Dec. 2022, buying BTC after Fed meetings and holding is said to have compounded to +402%, used as a DCA signal.
Updated Treasury-company NAV premiums are listed as MSTR 0.77, MPNL 0.63, 21 0.95, 'asset' 0.96, and MARA 0.95; the discount on MPNL is described as having collapsed from 12x to 6x.
The implication of 0.96 for 'asset' and 0.95 for MARA is that their non-BTC assets are effectively worthless and the BTC bag trades at about a 5% discount.
The ranking of BTC treasury holdings includes SpaceX as the sixth-biggest BTC bag, plus COIN, GLXY, RIOT, and HUT; HUT is said to have sold a lot of BTC.
No rate hike is expected tomorrow; hiking would worsen the economy, while inflation is blamed on Iran and energy/oil/diesel effects on food.
Jobs data is described as very bad, even if not yet reflected in the released data.
BTC is said to have its highest correlation with gold in a very long time, supporting the claim it will beat gold in 2026 and is doing so so far.
Glassnode proof-of-reserves for 11 exchanges with at least 1,000 BTC each shows six holding less than a year ago; the others are down a median 6.4%, while Gate.io is up 4.9%.
The exchange-drain takeaway is that BTC is leaving exchanges, making it harder to sell, with long-term holder coins possibly moving to ETFs or custody at firms like Fidelity.
River data says BTC is still mostly held by individuals: 79.6% of BTC is held by individuals versus 47% of gold and 38.7% of gold held by central banks like China and Russia; businesses own about 9% of BTC, and individuals hold 41.6% of stocks, 37% of stock funds, 11% of bonds, and 6.4% of pension-fund bonds.
Alt season is 49 and unchanged from last week.
SOL led all L1/L2 revenue for the seventh straight week, taking in $34M last week versus ETH at #3; SOL is doing roughly triple ETH's revenue, with Polygon also mentioned and Binance at #5.
The revenue ranking is used to argue that adoption follows where people spend money.
Stablecoin power on exchanges is lower because ETH bled more than $1B in stablecoins, with the aggregate nearly $2B off between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25, yet BTC held steady through it.
The stock fear-and-greed index is 33, still very fearful, tied to fear around the AI trade and AI capex.
Markets are described as extremely green today on AI exposure, with some big names up as much as 9%; TSLA is up 4% and about $60 over the last seven trading days.
Memory stocks are rebounding with SK Hynix reporting after the close; AMD is up big, MRVL is up big, and ALAB is up huge.
For the last 30 days, everything is red except SpaceX, TSLA, and PLTR; year to date, some of those names are up 200%-300%, despite the October drawdown.
TSLA's cumulative FSD miles are 16.7 billion, on a log-scale chart, and the miles are described as going parabolic.
FSD is claimed to be about 10x safer than a human driver in the U.S., using ~6 million miles per major collision on FSD versus ~660,000 miles before every serious accident.
To catch TSLA FSD, competitors would need millions of cars, full vertical integration, OTA updates, billions of hours of video, tons of edge cases, and a huge AI learning center; the conclusion is that competitors are not coming.
Cybercabs are said to already be taking people everywhere, including hundreds swarming a Formula 1 track at Kota over the weekend.
Four years ago today, Elon walked into Twitter headquarters and the courts made him buy it for $44B; TSLA was $106 then and about $48 now, implying a 4x over four years.
Cerebras cut a deal with ORCL for fast inference for AI agents in Oracle Cloud, and that deal is said to have sparked a big pop in the stock.
After the close today, SK Hynix, HOOD, and NPH are scheduled to report.
Shamath said BTC was going to zero, and Jason said BTC would tank; both are framed as having been wrong because they lacked BTC exposure or sold too early.
Celebrating other people's success is given as a personal rule that is said to lead to more success, though not scientifically provable.