SPY is framed at a hinge: a green open/close above 771 reopens a push to a fresh high near 782, while losing 765 points to 753. The biggest single-stock setup is MRNA’s 200%/$130 one-day surge on Merck cancer data, with 162 as the key hold level and 130 the downside risk if it fails. INTC is treated as a staged inverse head-and-shoulders only if it reclaims 90, then 100, then 108, which opens a run toward 133. The macro overlay is split: Nasdaq 100 futures shorts are crowded, which can fuel a squeeze, while VIX at 14 and deep-crash protection at the 92nd percentile show cheap calm on the surface and expensive tail hedging underneath.
SPY: a green open/close above 771 opens room to a new all-time high and the top fib near 782.
SPY: losing 765 shifts the path to the bottom of the channel and support at 753.
NFLX: a strong breakout above today’s high around 81 targets 84, with 78 as support on a pullback.
INTC: the inverse head-and-shoulders only starts to matter if price comes back to 90; 108 is the neckline.
INTC: a move back above 100 is treated as evidence a test of 108 is likely.
INTC: a push above 108 takes the neckline down to the head and implies a move toward 133, near all-time highs.
INTC: a close below 90 invalidates the inverse head-and-shoulders setup.
MRNA: the stock jumped 200%/$130 in 24 hours on Merck-linked late-stage personalized cancer treatment results.
MRNA: the trial uses mRNA to teach the immune system to recognize and attack melanoma cells.
MRNA: the rally was tied to longer time without cancer returning or spreading, but the treatment is not approved and results are still unreleased.
MRNA: after hours pulled back toward 162, which is the key support/flagging level; losing it quickly shifts risk to 130.
MRNA: holding above 162 leaves 194 as the next resistance area, with a Fibonacci read pointing to support around 162 if the move extends toward 195.
MRNA: the RSI hit 85, below its prior peak of 87, a zone described as prone to reversals.
Nasdaq 100 futures: leverage funds built the largest net short in early August and now hold about 127,000 shorts versus 30,000 longs, roughly $57 billion net short.
Nasdaq 100 futures: if the rally keeps going, forced short covering could add buying and drive a blow-off top.
VIX: at 14, the lowest level of the year, options are pricing relatively small daily S&P 500 moves even as investors buy deep crash protection.
CBOE deep crash protection: the relative price recently hit the 92nd percentile of its 1-year range, signaling cheap ordinary hedges and expensive disaster hedges.