Q4 is framed as the next explosive leg after the Fed’s 25 bp hike: rate-sensitive names took the hit, but AI, crypto, and the megacap growth complex are expected to rally. The core setup is a market still near resistance in SPY/QQQ, with BTC, NVDA, TSLA, MU, AMD, ARM, PLTR, and selected AI supply-chain names holding constructive charts or buy zones despite September chop. The video’s highest-conviction thread is that AI demand and capex keep overpowering macro noise, while BTC, TSLA/SpaceX, and memory names remain the key tape leaders into Q4.
The Fed’s 25 bp hike is called a "nothing burger" for AI and crypto, but it "hurt" the Dow; Japan data later this week, plus possible ECB and BoE moves, are flagged as the next market-moving releases.
SPY pulled back after hitting resistance, but the setup is still for a Q4 rally; with two weeks left in September, the call is for an "explosive" finish into Q4.
QQQ is still in the same flat, slightly down channel and is being driven by NVDA, TSLA, and MU; 10 companies are said to make up nearly 50% of S&P 500 market cap, "definitely 45%," with concentration expected to get more extreme in the age of AGI.
VIX is said to spike every 6 to 8 weeks, and today’s move above the 200-day moving average is blamed on rate-hike nervousness; the Fed is said to think it controls inflation even though it only destroys demand.
BTC held the April 2024 "havinging box," made a new all-time high before the halving, and is expected to print another all-time high before the next halving; the next halving is said to be not too far away.
BTC is at 76.3K versus a 200-day moving average of 70.3K, about 6K above it, which is called very bullish; short-term resistance is around 78K and 82K, with a move back to 80K expected before a break toward 90K.
BTC ETFs are said to have started selling again after five strong weeks, and the timing model has rolled down on dark blue, but that may fail in a bull market; BTC is also called neither overbought nor oversold.
BTC has beaten gold by 50% over the last 202 days.
ETH nearly hit the 2380-2390 resistance/buy zone and is expected to move back up toward 25,2600 from here.
SOL has beaten ETH by only 2% over the last 3 months, despite 4,600% more transactions per day, 10x the users, and a fifth of the market cap; the call is for SOL to be the faster horse, with a breakout above 100 into the annual trade show in about 8 weeks.
MSTR is the BTC proxy, and the last ATM last week is treated as good news for shareholders; when MSTR is not ATMing, it mirrors BTC closely.
STRC has a sell flag at 97, and the stock is said to be kept afloat mostly by Saylor buying it; a return to old 100 levels is not happening right now.
TSLA printed a beautiful buy signal in the low 300s inside an uptrend channel, and Q4 is framed as killer; the setup is backed by claims that Optimus entered production, Semi starts next week, Cybercab is running around, cars are sold out, and Roadsters are coming.
TSLA is also tied to a Tesla-SpaceX merger hint: buying TSLA is described as technically buying SpaceX at a discount because SpaceX would be acquired at a premium.
SpaceX was sold into for the first time ever into the unlock, dropped to around 140 and change, then bought after the selloff; the chart is said to work with buy/sell signals, and 155 is where unlock participants allegedly take lifestyle chips.
TSLA and SpaceX are said to be in lock step inside a tight range, implying the pair trade may be off because neither moves without the other anymore.
NVDA flashed a clear sell at 231, turned and burned, then formed a higher low; no buy signal yet, but the stock hit 210 today and is expected to churn back toward 228-230 before a Q4 breakout.
SK Hynix was called bearish short term, sold off, then recovered; Intel is said to be discussing a U.S. memory facility with SK Hynix, and the note is that everyone needs memory.
The memory chain extends to TSLA and SpaceX having a deal with MU, while Intel is said to be working with Terraab; SK Hynix is expected to keep rocking, with call options held in Leopold’s portfolio.
MU mean-reverted after being overbought and flashing a sell signal; it is boxed in by a tight day-trade range, doesn’t like going below 920, and is expected to be $1,500 within a year with a great Q4.
ARM’s buy zone is under 265; it fell to 250, rebounded to 270, and is expected to have a great Q4 with fantastic earnings.
MRVL bounced from 194, is trading around 229.82, faces resistance at 257, and is expected to retest an all-time high within 6 months, with 336 as the outside target.
AMD has spent nearly five months in a range rider box from May through September, but demand for custom chips and TPUs from Google is cited as the reason 325 is a no-brainer buy zone and a $400 stock is "waiting to happen."
PLTR’s timing signal fired too early: it broke above resistance, mean-reverted down under 168 multiple times, then flipped 168 into support; new $200 targets are now circulating and volatility has eased.
EOS hit a 350 buy zone last week, rebounded to 387-394, and still needs earnings to improve; November earnings are expected to go quite well, and a Google subsidiary is buying its energy storage systems.
The oil check shows U.S. crude still above 100, Brent at 105, and diesel at all-time highs; food inflation is tied directly to diesel costs.
The Bitcoin treasury company called "asset" is said to have a 1.50 NAV premium, to have beaten BTC by 114% since the bear market began, and to trade at a 50% premium with only a ~20% NAV discount to MSTR, making the highest NAV premium in the group a caution flag.
INTC is described as dead money for a quarter century but potentially breaking out on the SK Hynix memory-facility news; it also gets a 42 cents versus 22 cents earnings beat, even as quarterly revenue is down, losses are widening, and the chart keeps revisiting 87-88.
INTC is framed as a range trade: buy around 87-88 and sell around 108, with a claim that Q4 could still break it back toward all-time highs.
Credo has a big buy signal at 150-153, strong growth, and beat-beat-beat earnings over the last four quarters; the main reason it is not owned is portfolio clutter.
CBRS is linked to a Palantir sovereign AI deal, but the financials are said to have "pooped the bed" after a write-off; the chart is viewed as boom-then-flounder, and the stock is not a buy because partnership control and financial uncertainty remain.
AVGO below 345 is waiting for orders and a turn in the indicators; the reason for not owning it is the lack of buy signals and the downtrend.
After-hours, BTC is above 76K, MU and TSLA are slightly up, ALAB is flat, MRVL is mixed, SK Hynix is up, and SpaceX is up, setting up a nice Thursday.
September is still expected to "take a poop" seasonally, but this year’s drawdown has been mild, which is treated as potentially bullish even though the market is not out of the woods yet.
Q4 is called very strong in the Q&A: rate-hike sensitive stocks were hammered, while AI stocks were all green, and the positive list includes TSLA, ARM, NVDA, TSM, crypto, ORCL, Nebus, AMD, CoreWeave, MRVL, SpaceX, Big Day, ALAB, and Credo.