Soft CPI at 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, plus PPI at 0.0% m/m versus 0.2% expected and 4.7% y/y versus 5.5%, frame a cooling-economy setup that markets read as less need for Fed hikes this year. That backdrop ties directly into tomorrow’s retail sales report, SPY’s 782/753.50/800 path, and VIX behavior around 15, where the setup is still for volatility and a potential market move. The video also carries stock-specific levels: NFLX at $78-$79 resistance after a >100% options win, NOW at 130 with 136 as the last push, NVDA from 217 to 227, META from 611 to 578, and TSLA around 350 as a hedge zone. The highest-conviction trade ideas are a potential TSLA hedge via calls around 360 if price reaches 350, and a bearish SpaceX/SPCX-X framework centered on 150, with downside targets into 90 and 75 if the weekly candle confirms weakness.
NFLX was called at 74 with a 78 target; the move to 78 was treated as a $4 gain and 78-79 is now the neckline resistance.
A prior NFLX options trade produced over 100% profit, and shares were bought up to 78.
NOW was called back at 117, hit 130 today, and has a possible final push to 136 if stop losses are tightened.
NVDA rose from 217 to 227, a $10 move.
META fell from 611 to 578 the very next day.
CPI printed 0.1% m/m, in line with expectations, and 3.4% y/y versus 3.5% prior; PPI printed 0.0% m/m versus 0.2% expected and 4.7% y/y versus 5.5% prior.
The CPI/PPI weakness is framed as evidence the Fed may not raise rates this year, while higher-for-longer rates are still slowing the economy and capping inflation.
July retail sales is the next key read: soft data would reinforce the cooling CPI/PPI message and support the no-hike view.
SPY weekly structure points to a fib target near 780, with price sitting at 782 and a plan for rejection there, a possible pullback to 753.50, and a bounce off descending support.
If SPY holds 753.50, the upside path is a wick back to the highs, a break above 782, and a run toward 800; if 782 breaks and the candle closes above it, 800 is still the next-week target.
A three-green-candle push in SPY could still be followed by a retrace before the move higher.
VIX under 15 is treated as a consistent short-the-market zone, and VIX sitting on 15 is framed as no fear, which is the moment to be cautious.
TSLA is mapped to 350 as the 30 EMA and a likely rejection zone for a drop back toward 300; if TSLA reaches 350, selling 360 calls is the hedge plan.
TSLA could hit 350 as soon as tomorrow or Monday, making that the hedge-entry area.
SpaceX is viewed as a short setup if it keeps getting pushed back up toward 150; the 2x bear ETF SPCX-X is the vehicle discussed for that trade.
SPCX-X was first called at 9 with targets at 13, 15, 20, and 25; it hit 25 at a rejection point and then fell back to the lows, with the current bearish setup pointing to 90-75 if a weekly evening star/shooting-star doji confirms and the candle closes below the green bar.