PLTR’s 30% drop comes after an earnings print described as great: 96% revenue growth, 148% annual US commercial growth, 165 net dollar retention, 158 rule of 40, 60% adjusted operating margins, and 56% free cash flow margin. The argument is that business performance is still accelerating while valuation multiples compress — forward P/E down to 51.6 from 112, and price-to-sales down to 56 from 365 — so the selloff is driven by profit-taking, valuation fear, a growth-peaked narrative, and broader tech/AI weakness, not fundamentals. The setup is then extended into a 2030 model: even with growth slowing to 80%, a 55 P/E and 46% net margin still imply $978 per share, or 431% upside. The video ends by framing PLTR as a long-duration AI compounder, with Jevons-paradox-style adoption effects, a 15 billion 2028 US commercial target, and a comparison to an old NVDA call that has roughly 10x’d.
PLTR is down 30% after earnings framed as great, despite 96% revenue growth, the highest in its history.
US commercial revenue is up 148% year over year, with growth running about 29% each quarter and rising from $397 million to $984 million in one year.
Alex Karp said PLTR is headed to $15 billion in this segment by 2028.
PLTR posted a rule of 40 score of 158, net dollar retention of 165, and EPS growth of 144%.
Q3 revenue was up 96% to $2.3 billion, and quarterly revenue growth was stated at 20%; Q3 revenue was also said to exceed all of 2023 revenue.
PLTR generated 212 new million-dollar deals in the quarter, including 107 above $5 million and 64 above $10 million.
Operating income rose from $393 million a year ago to $1.08 billion, up 175% year over year and 19% quarter over quarter; trailing 12-month operating income is $3.3 billion, versus $120 million in 2023.
Cash is $2.5 billion, total debt is $225 million, and debt fell 4% while cash rose 64%, leaving roughly 5x more cash than debt.
Forward P/E fell from 112 in last year’s Q3 to 51.6 now, down 31% over the year; price-to-sales fell from 365 to 56, down 46.7%.
The selloff is blamed on four non-business factors: profit-taking, valuation concern, a belief that growth peaked, and broader weakness in tech, AI, and growth stocks.
The 2021 setup is used as precedent: PLTR went from $10 to $40, then sank to $7 and stayed there through 2022, before a later move from $7 to $200 is called easy if business keeps improving while the stock falls.
A scorecard from stockshippy.com gave PLTR 98/100, called the platform’s top score, and the only deduction was 2 points for low institutional ownership, said to be closing fast.
The AI product case is built around customers controlling their own information, choosing multiple models, improving compliance/safety, cutting outside LLM dependence, and lowering operating costs at scale.
Jevons paradox is used to argue that as AI costs fall, adoption rises and total addressable market expands, with that effect expected to show up in 2–3 years.
A 2030 target of $978 per share is laid out using 95/90/85/80 growth scenarios, a 55 P/E, and 46% net margin, implying 431% upside from here.
The video closes by comparing the setup to an NVDA call made 4 years ago that is now roughly 10x, and cites the education offer at patreon.com/tomnash with over 40,000 academy members.