Fed Wednesday is the pivot: a hold and reassuring inflation/rate message could let the rally extend sharply, while hawkish language keeps the risk-off move going. SPY is framed around 764 support and 783 upside, with the ascending channel expected to break if 764 fails; meanwhile MSFT and GOOGL earnings are the other possible market-saving catalysts if AI spending is turning into profits. A major theme is rotation: AAPL looks extended and potentially near a top, while NVDA, MU, NFLX and META are watched for relative weakness or reversal setups.
Monday SPY reversed Friday's freefall and gained almost 1%, tied to buyers returning to AI and chip stocks after Anthropic's IPO was officially filed.
Tuesday's trade was largely sideways ahead of Wednesday's Fed rate decision.
Wednesday's Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged; that outcome is described as very likely.
A reassuring Fed message that inflation should keep coming down and hikes are less likely could let the rally continue and "get crazy" because many stocks have pulled back enough for another run.
A hawkish Fed would trigger risk-off selling and extend the downside move.
MSFT and GOOGL earnings are positioned to override even a weak Fed read if AI is making money; watched details are Azure growth for MSFT and healthy ad plus cloud sales for GOOGL.
If the rally extends, Thursday and Friday are described as big opportunity days.
SPY's first downside trigger is 764; a close below 764 is expected to accelerate the move and, if it breaks on Wednesday or Thursday, would be the first break of the bottom of the ascending channel.
SPY upside target is 783, labeled a long-term fib level; if the channel breaks, the next bounce area is 750 to 745.
A sideways Wednesday can be red, but SPY cannot cross beneath 764.
AAPL is still in an uptrend, but the "top of the channel" thesis says much of the strength is already priced in.
AAPL's run is tied to back orders and "incredible buzz" around its new phone, but a turning point and selloff are expected eventually.
AAPL shows bearish RSI divergence while price keeps rising; trend-based fib extension points to 355 from about 345 now, with additional resistance at 357 to 360.
AAPL is said to be moving opposite NVDA and MU: when NVDA and MU run, AAPL falls; when AAPL rises, NVDA and MU fall.
After AAPL reaches the 350 to 357 area, downside risk rises; if weekly candles reject there with a long upper wick, price could trend down for quite a while toward 333 and possibly 321 or 315.
NFLX shows bullish divergence, and META is starting to show it too; the setup being waited for is weekly candles that wick down and get bought back up quickly, which are not there yet but could create November opportunities.