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🚨Crypto Proxy & Wrapper Dangers📉What Stage Of IA13 Bubble Are We?

2026-10-11

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34m

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23 min read

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The video argues crypto-equity proxies and wrappers can work, but only if timing, leverage, debt, and dilution are controlled; otherwise they turn into lottery tickets. It frames today’s AI and chip setup as midcycle rather than dotcom-euphoric: valuations are still far below March 2000 / June-July 2000 extremes, even after a huge run since November 2022. The core bullish case is that Solana adoption, fee burn, and AI/space infrastructure could keep compounding for years, but the sharp warning is that proxy wrappers like DFTV and Smarter Web can be crushed by dilution, debt, and premium compression.

  • The dotcom bubble ran from 1995 to 2000, rose 985% in 62 months, and after 47 months was only up about 157%; the current cycle is mapped to roughly first-half 1998, implying about 24 months left.
  • Peak dotcom valuations were March 2000, with CSCO over 200x P/E and the NASDAQ around 60x P/E; now the NASDAQ is about 20x, NVDA is 14x forward earnings, and MU is 5.9x current earnings.
  • Chip names have already ripped 345% since November 2022, while the winter winners index is up 58%–60% YTD; still, the claim is that current valuations are nowhere near dot-bubble levels.
  • $10.3 trillion of AI buildout is still said to be ahead, and AI is framed as midcycle at “around 998,” with casualties likely as debt, defaults, and slowing growth emerge.
  • Anthropic is said to have barely grown since July and is looking to do a $2 trillion IPO; I13 was built around the end of 2028, based on an idea from May 2025 and a first list built in June 2025.
  • The names ranked highest in the equity stack are AVGO, AMD, MRVL, TSLA, NVDA, and MU; PLTR was cited at a 210 target after being 106 twelve weeks ago, while GOOGL was called a steady compounding 'big train.'
  • TSM is said to be close to the top, while MRVL, MU, and airlines are no longer cheap but still have upside over the next 2–3 years; not everything is cheap now because many names have already run a lot.
  • Proxy timing matters, but a proxy can blow up if capex dries up; if capex spend stopped tomorrow, the stance is to exit and rotate into the next big thing.
  • PE1 / Smarter Web is said to trade at a 1.37 NAV premium with 32 million in debt and 2 million in cash; MSTR’s NAV premium is 0.74, so PE1 is framed as roughly double MSTR’s premium despite MSTR holding 309x more BTC.
  • DFTV is said to trade at a 0.51 NAV premium, implying SOL at about half off, but it also carries nearly half the market cap in debt: 125–130 million, plus 2.56 million sold, 126 million liabilities, and 16 million preferred at stated value.
  • A dilution model says DFDV dilution since June 2025 is 130.76%, 5.5x MSTR’s dilution; SOL has beaten DFDV by 251% since stacking began, and a Caner Fit Fitzgerald example cut a $45 target on DFDV to $10.
  • Options on proxies are framed as dangerous: spot can drop, DFDV has 1.24x SOL volatility, and leaps become very expensive; prior highs from the cited DFDV target would require a 9.4x move.
  • UK wrappers are a constraint: crypto ETNs are said to be banned in ISAs, and options are banned on ETPs/ETNs in the UK, so retirement-account access depends on the ISA used.
  • The bullish long-run SOL case is fee burn: base fee is 5,000 lamports per signature with half burned, about 60,000 minted daily versus 434–990 burned daily now; at 10 billion transactions/day, 1.44% of supply would be burned, and at 25 billion/day, 3.59% would be burned.
  • Validators keep priority fees, and the claim is that if 10 billion AI agents ran on SOL at 200 transactions each per day, the burn mechanics would need to change; for now, the network is said to work, and the right lens is market cap per daily active user and per daily transaction.
  • Space-based compute is already being built: Google reportedly has four TPUs in space with SpaceX and they were working, and an NVDA H100 was in space last year; MRVL is said not to have the radiation-hardened silicon for that use case.
  • A retire-on-bags example targets $1,000,000 by 2032 using 655 SpaceX shares or 322 TSLA shares; the point is to build multiple paths because outcomes are uncertain and Q4 is said to be hot while Q1 typically sells off.
  • NVDA is said not to 2x–3x for many years, so the plan is to keep cash ready for pullbacks such as the tariff tantrum low at $88; the overall stance on SpaceX and TSLA is extremely bullish.
  • Sabrina, a baby sloth that fell from a tree and could not be reunited with her mom, and two sloths becoming best friends after separation, are the only non-market aside.