BTC is back below $82,000, and the next major question is whether it can reclaim and hold $83,000 or whether the bull market support band in the low-to-mid $70,000s gets tested again. The setup is mixed: BTC has lagged the deeper support tests seen in stocks, ETH, TOTAL3, and MSTR, which is framed as relative strength, but tighter monetary policy, weaker stocks, and weaker energy prices point to a Q4 drawdown. The next inflection is tied to the midterms on November 3, with a possible bounce into that date followed by another test lower afterward. A break below the 50-day moving average would signal the 21-week EMA is in play, while losing the bull market support band would shift focus to range lows.
BTC is back below $82,000 after bouncing off the 50-day moving average and then struggling again.
July 21, August 21, and September 21 all marked local highs for BTC; in August, BTC made a higher high a few days later and then set the actual high on September 3.
The next BTC high is framed as possibly landing between yesterday and November 3, the midterms.
BTC has gone about 9 weeks without visiting the bull market support band.
The bull market support band has already been tested by the Nasdaq, is being approached by the S&P, and was already broken by the Dow Jones before it moved back above it.
ETH, TOTAL3, and TOTAL2 have all tested the 21-week EMA; TOTAL has not because it includes BTC.
MSTR has already tested the bull market support band.
BTC’s relative strength is framed by the fact that multiple markets already tested the bull market support band while BTC mostly has not.
BTC dominance has gone up and is expected to keep rising if tighter monetary policy returns, as riskier assets bleed toward lower-risk assets inside the industry.
Altcoins are bleeding into BTC.
BTC may retest the bull market support band in the coming weeks, and falling back below 83K increases the burden of proof for the bears.
A daily close below 83K is also framed as shifting the burden of proof back to the bulls, because BTC would need to return to and hold the bull market support band to avoid a fake-out view.
The market is described as struggling because technicals are bullish while the macro backdrop for stocks and energy prices is bearish.
A Q4 correction is framed as coming from the stock market dropping and dragging BTC with it; if stocks keep falling after the midterms, BTC could go lower too.
If BTC loses the 50-day moving average, that is the first sign the 21-week EMA is in play; below the bull market support band, the next focus is range lows.