The setup is bearish: the market is positioned to go lower, red candles and downside MACD signals are the guide, and the only usable buy signals are 1-hour MACD crosses back above the zero line. NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, TSLA, and NFLX are used as examples showing that zero-line behavior on the 1-hour chart preceded the big moves, with breakdowns producing the cleanest downside. The main rule is to avoid long entries unless the stock is above the zero line on the 1-hour MACD; TSLA is singled out as still lacking any buy alert and is forecast to hit 300 by Monday.
A Tesla short was profitable enough to “make a ton of money today taking Tesla short,” while comments asked about buying TSLA after the big red candle.
Risk is elevated because the president is speaking tonight, and prior weekend presidential speeches usually escalate conflict in the Middle East.
The trade rule is to only trade the trend, and the current trend is to the downside; the market is “positioned to go lower.”
MACD is treated as the number one buy/sell indicator, and there are “nothing but sell alerts across the Magnificent Seven.”
On the 1-hour MACD, a buy signal starts when the MACD line and orange signal line cross above the zero line; it is complete when both the blue and orange lines cross up.
NVDA printed a 1-hour MACD buy signal on Tuesday, July 21st, then moved from $205 to $214 the next day.
NVDA later printed MACD sell signals; waiting for the next day turned puts profitable as price fell from $208 to $204.
MSFT’s 1-hour MACD cross above the zero line led price from $386 to $405, while a later cross down led to a drop from $400 to $378.
MSFT beneath the zero line with both the signal line and MACD line is a sell signal, and the plan is not to catch an intraday dip but to stay with downside continuation.
GOOGL crossing back above the zero line triggered a breakout from $358 to $380, while a later move back below the zero line led to a fall from $357 to $319.
The instruction is not to look at NVDA, MSFT, or GOOGL until they get back above the zero line, described as the rebuilding point.
TSLA earlier moved beneath the zero line, so later cross-ups “meant nothing”; TSLA then issued a sell alert at $403 and has been falling ever since.
TSLA has no buy alert now and must climb back up to the zero line and then above it to print one; guessing a bottom is warned against because it could crush the account.
NFLX crossed above the zero line on Wednesday pre-market, skimmed slightly above it, and rose from $68.70 to $70.69.
NFLX’s buy signal is called not very strong, though it still counts as a 1-hour buy signal; the upside move was attributed to live trading in the Stocks with Josh Discord.
Next week’s rule is not to go long on anything unless it is above the zero line on the 1-hour MACD, and TSLA is forecast to easily hit 300 by Monday.