Gold is framed as still mid-cycle, not topped: after a 2016-2017 run, a 2022 consolidation, and another 2026 push, the base case is that the real peak is still ahead. The current 2026 pullback is treated as normal for gold, with a likely short-lived weakness into mid-September or mid-October driven by a stronger DXY before a higher low and another move up. The bullish read stays intact unless gold fails to break out by mid-2027; if the 1974-style path repeats, new all-time highs could come as early as later this year. A first ITC conference in Miami on November 21, with some events the day before, is also being pushed alongside gold-themed programming.
Gold is the channel’s current thesis: the next big move is still ahead, not already complete.
The gold track record cited runs from first coverage in 2019 back to the 2016-2017 initial move, then consolidation through 2022, another rally, and a second consolidation in 2026.
Gold is down about 30% from its February 2026 high; that drawdown is described as normal, versus about 33.5% in the 2008 crisis and almost 50% in the 1970s-1980s bull market.
The 2026 summer low landed in the late June/early July window that matches the average midterm-year gold low; gold then moved up before the current pullback.
Midterm years are framed as typically showing a summer low, a rally, and then one final pullback; 2018 and 2022 did not make their yearly low until late September or October.
The base case is a higher low in late September or early October; a lower low is possible, but the 2018/2022 analog alone is not enough to force that outcome.
The 1974 gold bull-market template is central: a strong start, summer bottom, rally, late-September/early-October correction, then new all-time highs by the holidays.
In the 1974 comparison, gold had a big move up into March-April, then nearly a 30% drop, then a rally of about 20% or a little less, then a mid-September higher low before a higher high; 2026 has roughly matched that sequence so far.
The bullish invalidation is delayed, not immediate: if gold is not really breaking out by about mid-2027, the bullish view weakens; by then at the latest, new all-time highs should be starting.
A secular-top view around the January high is explicitly treated as a competing debate, but not the base case.
The near-term risk to gold is a brief DXY resurgence; the expected setup is one or two rate cuts or even rate hikes priced before year-end, giving the dollar a last surge higher.
That dollar strength is expected to pressure gold only for two to four weeks, after which gold should get another move up.
Gold did not even fully tag its monthly bull market support band on the current pullback; prior bull markets, especially in the 2000s, often kept rising without tagging that band.
The short-term call in segment 2 is weakness into mid-September or mid-October at the latest, then a higher low and a strong bounce into year-end.
Estimated odds are given as about 65% for a higher low and 35% for a lower low, including a possible back test of trendline support and a sweep of the June low.
If the setup works, 2027 is expected to be another strong year for gold; pre-election years cited as generally higher include 2026, 2023, 2019, 2011, 2007, and 2003, with 2015 the lone slightly down case.