SpaceX’s week included a first revenue-generating rocket flight, multiple launches in one day, and Starship’s orbital milestone being framed as a physics and cadence story, not an asterisk. The core thesis is that Starship’s reusability, launch cadence, and Starlink bandwidth growth can compound into a far larger business than the market prices today, with 2028-2030 valuation outputs and even a 10T standalone case. The biggest risks are reusability, permits, cadence slip, solar storms/Kessler syndrome, and nationalization; the biggest upside optionality comes from Starship enabling AI compute, defense, and Moon/Mars-scale infrastructure. The video ends on accumulation discipline: keep buying small under key levels while watching the next 6-9 months for a re-rate.
A first-ever revenue-generating flight happened in the week’s opening; the same stretch included crew launch, TPU hardware going to space, and a Falcon Heavy launch.
On Friday the stock was up 6.66% to nearly $105.77, its highest since June.
155 was framed as the level where insiders historically sell, while 150 was described as the psychological pivot near a roughly $2T valuation.
Starship’s orbital milestone was treated as a physics event, not a market "asterisk": it had flown 13 times already, and 19 seconds of relight on one of six engines was enough to turn "not in orbit" into "technically in orbit."
The vehicle came back early because of concern the fuel tanks could overheat; the point was reentry-capable Starship lets SpaceX test safely over ocean, not over populated areas.
Three rockets launched in one day: one Falcon 9 from California, one Falcon 9 from Florida, and one Falcon Heavy from Florida, alongside four astronauts, 130 satellites, and a secret NOL cargo.
Starbase Louisiana was announced about a month earlier, and the reason for multiple pads is parallel launches and fast turnaround; Starship launches were expected later in October, including three launches spaced about 13-14 days apart and then two weeks after that.
Bandwidth jumped from Falcon 9 V2’s 2.78 TB/s to Starship launch 26 / Starship 14 at 26 TB/s, with capacity for 60 TB/s; at one terabit per second per satellite, one Starship launch equals 23 Falcon 9 launches.
The model says doubling Starlink bandwidth by 2027 is conservative; 800-1,000 V3 satellites next year could do it, and 3,000-4,000 satellites by end-2027 is the more aggressive case.
Moon travel was contrasted with LEO: 500 km is not much distance, but orbit needs about 27,000 km/h; getting to the Moon with the same vehicle may take 8-12 launches and Elon has said refueling could be needed as many as eight times.
Apollo-era missions used rockets that were mostly fuel and only 2%-3% payload, while Starship targets 100 tons of payload, so the refuel burden is the cost of the payload/fuel mix.
The cadence thesis is extreme: an hourly launch cadence implies almost 10,000 launches a year, which matters for Mars/Moon scale rather than for trillion-dollar revenue alone.
Space in the 2030s was framed as the infrastructure layer for economic, capitalist, democratic outcomes, with the analogy shifted from railroads to empires; Vikings, Portuguese, Dutch, and British shipbuilding were used as precedents for a killer-app transport advantage.
In 2025, about 20%-22% of SpaceX revenue reportedly came from the government, tied to comm systems and other secret projects; Star Shield was described as Starlink plus networking, cameras, radar, and geospatial-intelligence sensors.
The valuation model combined revenues, EBITDA, discounted cash flow, and Monte Carlo methods; 2030 output was given as 902, 2028 as 3.61x from here, and the model was said to exclude or barely include AI compute when built in June.
A sum-of-the-parts framework put total market cap at 18.45T, with 7T from EWS and 3T from Macro hard, while NASA was called a tiny slice around 120B; the current update is expected in about a month.
SpaceX itself was called a possible 10T company and one of the first companies to reach 10T; a 2035 100T combined Tesla/SpaceX outcome was also cited, with merger timing in 1-2 years presented as the key variable.
The biggest risks listed were no ship catch yet, permits like Pecan Island, flight-15 delays, solar storms/Carrington events, Kessler syndrome, nationalization, and edge-case geopolitical shocks.
Reusability was the main competitive mode: past 10 full Starship reuses is the threshold that makes everything "golden," and that target could arrive in 2028-2029 rather than immediately.
Near term, the stock was already at the day’s high, the next 6-9 months were framed as the window when more gigawatts of compute and more Starship launches make the story real, and 250+ in nine months was the explicit upside target.
The accumulation rule was simple: buy a little every week, especially under 150; the IPO was at 151, and 135 was the preferred entry if available.