Bitcoin is still stuck near $64k after seven months, but the segment treats that as a potential base rather than weakness: August is usually a poor month, yet BTC is up 1.6% so far, holding $60k-$62k support, with whales adding and no liquidation cascade. The bullish case centers on late-stage despair, active addresses at a 3-year high near 1 million, 50%+ of supply at a loss as a classic cycle-bottom marker, and a close above $63,000-$67,000 as the trigger for a new bull leg. Macro and flow arguments add urgency: U.S. debt is nearing $40 trillion, Bitwise says BTC has never been cheaper versus global M2, and AI is currently absorbing liquidity that may later rotate back toward BTC. The STRC/MicroStrategy setup is framed as a balance-sheet-driven bid supporting BTC, while ETF flows, custody fears, and sentiment all point to a market searching for a bottom rather than breaking one.
August is usually red for BTC, with an average return of about 0.5%; 10 of the last 15 Augusts were red, and September is described as one of the worst months.
BTC was at 64k in February and is still at 64k seven months later, but it was up 1.6% as of the segment after last week’s ETF flows turned red.
A fear-driven selloff tied to Iran did not extend, and BTC held an extremely tight range with very little selling, thin volume, no panic, and no liquidations.
BTC is trading near its 200-week moving average around 62k, with critical support at 60k-62k and an upside reset only if price reclaims 65k, then 67k.
Bitcoin active addresses hit nearly 1 million, the highest in 3 years, with much of the spike attributed to users re-securing and moving coins after the Coldcard firmware scare.
The Coldcard vulnerability reportedly drained about $88 million-$89 million, sparked self-custody FUD, and used seed-phrase guessing through a system that worked on very short word lists.
Late-stage despair is described as showing up in the sentiment index and social commentary ratio, while whale wallets allegedly added hundreds of thousands of BTC during the selloff and exchange balances eased.
Long-term holder cost basis is described as forming a structural floor, with a Patreon list of about 15 experts, including Fidelity, said to think 60k was the bottom.
10X is said to have BTC monthly RSI at 48% and to argue that closing above $63,000 in August would confirm a major structural cycle bottom, matching 2011, 2013, 2018, 2022, and 2026.
K33 is said to show that when more than 50% of circulating BTC trades at a loss, that marks a major cycle bottom, with 12-month post-bottom returns ranging from 69% to 360%.
BTC’s realized-price trigger is framed at 67k: RP is said to be 67K, and breaking above it is described as the point where a new bull run typically kicks off.
Current BTC price is given as 63,846, and the segment argues that uncapped U.S. deficit spending and debt near $40 trillion make hard assets like BTC and tech equities necessary for capital preservation.
Bitwise is cited saying BTC has never been cheaper versus global M2, while global M2 is said to be flowing into AI instead of BTC for now and could rotate back after AI profit-taking.
Strategy sold another 1,600 BTC to fund about $105 million of STRC buybacks, added another $250 million to USD cash reserves, and bought $81 million of STRC, which is said to strengthen its balance sheet but dilute equity holders.
STRC broke its 200-day moving average for the first time in 50 days, was at 92.35 after being at 73 a few weeks earlier, and is modeled to reach $100 if BTC gets back above 65k-67k; “SVP” is said to be all-green buying with a volume spike and no selling.
Nate Geraci and Eric Balchunas are cited for the meme that ETFs are the new cold storage, a framing that could pull more money into BTC ETFs, while a poll showed 8% on the fence, 42% believing but not buying, and 44% with conviction and accumulating.
Strategy is still described as holding a very large bag of 842,000 BTC, nearly 850k, and the claim is that when the last ‘never sell’ institutional voice starts monetizing for balance-sheet reasons, forced selling dries up.
The segment says morale is better than expected, with the poll result described as ‘way better’ than feared and not a bad sentiment backdrop.
The segment says the current BTC setup is calm, with no core-network compromise from the Coldcard issue and the network described as never being more secure.