ITC is framed as a cycle conference where crypto’s next move hinges on whether BTC finishes its reset first, while AI agents and stablecoins create a new payments layer that could make crypto infrastructure invisible to users. The sharpest near-term question is BTC: 57,000 is the line between a macro higher low and a much larger drop, with realized price at 54 and balance price at 38. Longer term, rising rates, a possible US real-estate slowdown, and AI-driven internet monetization shifts are presented as the core macro setup. The conference itself is positioned around two crypto themes: NFA Live as a symbolic in-person reunion for the market, and a machine-economy talk on how AI traffic breaks the ad model and pushes X402/USDC-style payments.
Jason Pazino is slated for Friday at 6 pm on "macro outlook. What comes next?" with Gareth and Mark Yusco, moderated by David Lynn; it is the last Friday talk on the agenda.
His Saturday talk is "three generational trades," focused on the macro real-estate and economic cycle, reading cycle signals, and how to act on them.
He has no "macro confirmation" for a market top because weakness is still unfolding and there is no "technical structural breakdown" yet.
BTC has broken support at the 21-week EMA, the 20-week SMA, and the 200-day level; if support keeps failing, it could quickly be in the low-to-high 60s.
57,000 is the key BTC line: below it means a macro higher-low thesis is in danger and a much larger drop becomes more likely; he wants any break and close under 57,000 to happen within the next two months if it is going to happen at all.
BTC realized price is 54 and balance price is 38; he expects BTC to eventually trade to realized price, could be more bullish if that happens this year, and sees 38 as a future-recession level rather than a near-term base.
He expects a bear-to-bull sentiment shift by year-end that lasts through H1 2027, even though near-term BTC remains weak and may keep bleeding into stocks before showing strength again next year.
He sketches a downside path to 40k by year-end as a 2015-style dump into January followed by 8-10 months of sideways accumulation; a fast rebound would instead look like a "hope bounce," like XRP and many alts.
He argues crypto’s long stagnation is unprecedented, with alts "with[er]ed away to nothing," which is painful short term but bullish for the industry long term.
His portfolio is now mostly stocks and commodities; he bought bonds recently and bought a TIPS hedge because inflation could return.
He thinks bonds may be attractive on a 2-3 year horizon, while longer term yields should rise, not revisit pandemic lows; he expects a higher low, with the 10-year possibly around 6.5% over the next four years.
He cites long historical rate cycles: 1981-2020 was roughly a 40-year downtrend in the 10-year yield, 1941-1980 a roughly 40-year uptrend, and data back to the 1700s shows cycles typically lasting 20-30 years at the shortest and about 40 years at the longest.
If rates keep rising until he is 76, frothy alts likely struggle; under sustained higher rates, only assets that actually make money may work, or else the market risks a loss decade that may not be recognized until halfway through.
He thinks US real estate could go sideways and underperform inflation rather than repeat GFC-style collapses, while Australia is getting hit hard and fast.
He sees a possible Bitcoin reset through a drawdown plus 3-4 months of consolidation, similar to 2018-early 2019; if that happens, he would be pretty bullish, especially if NASDAQ weakness prices out expected 2027 Fed hikes.
At ITC, NFA Live is positioned as the first time all three are together in person, with the claim that crypto’s bull market cannot really start until Guy, Rob, and the rest are physically in the same place.
The machine-economy talk centers on AI traffic overtaking human internet traffic, breaking the ad-based web model because AI agents can visit exponentially more sites without looking at ads.
The proposed fix is a plug-in called turnpike that detects an AI visitor and uses X402 to request a micropayment in USDC; pay and the site opens, refuse and the site is blocked, while human browsing is unchanged.
The bull case is that AI agents will need internet-native money, using crypto wallets with pre-approved balances and spending limits, so crypto becomes base-layer plumbing people use without noticing.
Stablecoins are framed as the real future of payments: people will tap cards or phones and move USDC over blockchain rails without caring about the rails, just as they already use cards without understanding backend settlement.
The Paraguay banking failure described as happening last week is used as a reminder for why BTC exists: a bank can fail because of corrupt executives, while BTC cannot be shut down that way.
Stablecoins are presented as a lifeline in places like Argentina, where the local currency is described as basically a complete shitcoin; people still grade net worth in dollars, which is why dollar-denominated stablecoins win day-to-day use.
He expects the first wave of crypto adoption to be invisible: users will transact through AI agents and stablecoins without knowing the underlying crypto stack, similar to how most people use credit cards without caring how money moves underneath.
He says he is speaking at 6:00 a.m. Dubai time, is coming off a horrendous cold, and has a six-month-old baby waking him every two to three hours after a five-and-a-half-hour stream.
Guy’s YouTube channel is said to have hit 1 million subs, with the plaque arriving about two months later; the timing is placed as earlier this year, likely summer, after a confused reference to April 2020.
Crypto subscriber growth has slowed versus prior years, and video performance is highly unpredictable: one ITC-related Trump-midterms video got about 3 million views, a Money Bureau bonds video topped 1 million, while other planned videos bombed.
A January Japan trip is booked for the whole family after a first skiing trip that was hated on day 1 and loved by day 3; the plan is to take the kids onto the kids’ runs and pay for a lesson instead of improvising.