SPY is stuck under a broken weekly ascending channel, with NVDA earnings and PPI the next catalysts; a bad NVDA print is framed as the main risk to a flash drop toward 714, while a calmer VIX next week could let the market rebound into year-end. NVDA is the key tell for the AI trade: the stock broke its ascending channel, dropped to 165, and could still whip between 190 on a strong report and the 156 area on weakness, with 141 as a deeper zone and 125 only a full measured-move possibility. AMD remains constructive only if it reclaims 516 after running from 400 to 541, while the earlier LEAP-plus-put-selling setup on 11/5 was already extremely profitable and then closed. MARA stays a leveraged-Bitcoin momentum name, already up from about $5.74 to $7.56, with any red candle treated as a buy and 8.65 as the next target.
SPY broke outside an ascending channel on a weekly close and printed an inside green week; reclaiming that channel is the problem.
While SPY sits below that channel, NVDA earnings and PPI are the two catalysts the market is waiting on.
A bad NVDA earnings reaction is the main risk case for SPY, with a potential flash-drop target at 714.
VIX already hit a 30% spike, described as the first wave of the crash; a second spike next week is the danger window, while the base case is VIX cools this week and SPY rises into next week.
The April 2025 VIX zone is the last major test reference, and the current setup is compared to that earlier crash-and-buying-opportunity pattern.
AMD’s 11/5 LEAP trade plus sold puts became extremely profitable; the position was sold after roughly a 68% move and the puts were closed after rising to up 100%.
AMD is still viewed as a head-and-shoulders setup with a right-shoulder target of 516; if it cannot clear 516, the chart is not building for the next leg higher.
AMD moved from 400 to 541, a 141-point run, but now faces descending resistance; the trade was closed for now.
AP reported a shareholder lawsuit alleging NVDA and HNG misled investors about their relationship and associated risks, and concern over HNG’s future and succession helped drive the stock lower again.
NVDA dropped to 165 after a prior green candle and broke below an ascending channel; the technical framework warns of a full measured move that could reach 125, though that is only a possibility.
For NVDA, the main bounce zone is 156 to 141; 156 is expected to react, 141 is a possible deeper test, and a bounce from 156 would need a second retest to prove support.
NVDA earnings are Tuesday, with volatility expected; the range framed for reaction is roughly 190 on strong results versus the 156 buy zone on bad news, with 141 possible in a deeper flush.
The longer-term view stays constructive on NVDA because the AI story is expected to remain extremely strong into 2027, but the bottom is not yet established, tested, or proven.
The near-term warning is not to chase NVDA; the setup calls for giving time for the negative news to clear and watching Monday and Tuesday for volatility.
A small-cap winner already called out is up about 30%; MARA was below 6, at about 5.74 on Thursday, and is now 7.56.
MARA is framed as a leveraged-Bitcoin frontrunner alongside MSTR and RIOT, with any red candle treated as a buying opportunity and an 8.65 target in sight.