NVDA is framed as a near-term earnings trade: the stock is down 9.5% since the Jensen Huang affair news, Baird cut NVDA to neutral with its target from $500 to $200, and the setup is judged oversold but not yet washed out enough to justify a blind buy. The chart call centers on a likely back-test into 190 that could fail, with 156 as the downside support target if Friday’s PPI and the run into Tuesday’s earnings keep pressure on the name. Separately, six figures went into Bitcoin today on the view that BTC is close enough to the bottom, with 90k as a target and a bigger move expected in 2027 around the halving cycle. The throughline is that bad news on good assets can create the best entries, but the immediate trade is still a reaction to upcoming macro and earnings catalysts.
An “affair rally” is defined as a rally after a stock gets smacked down when the CEO has an affair.
Jeff Bezos’s 2019 affair was followed by a drop and then a 212% run.
Bill Gates’s 2021 affair was followed by a drop and then a 120% rise since being swept up in the AI rally.
Chai Tuai Juan of SK Hynix had an affair in 2015; SK Hynix is up 3,528%.
Jensen Huang’s affair news has left NVDA down 9.5% since release.
House China Committee Chair John Moolenaar said subpoenas were likely if Huang did not respond to the committee’s request by the end of Wednesday.
Baird cut NVDA to neutral and slashed its price target from $500 to $200, citing tighter U.S. chip restrictions on China sales and risk that AI infrastructure spending slows in 2027.
NVDA earnings are due this coming Tuesday, with Friday’s PPI called a gauntlet that could block the back-test and push NVDA toward 156.
NVDA’s daily RSI hit 24%, described as extremely oversold; that level was hit twice, with two additional dips below 30, for four unique oversold episodes.
The prior 24% RSI oversold stretch coincided with a 57% drawdown that took almost an entire year to recover to the previous high.
Current chart context is down about 32% from the prior high after a back-test, a move up, consolidation, then another leg down.
Two chart targets are in play: 156 as descending support likely to bounce, and 190 as a back-test likely to fail; if 190 rejects, lower prices are expected.
Current volume is described as not showing smart-money accumulation: the three biggest recent volume nodes are all selling, while the biggest buying nodes are still dwarfed by two prior selling days that pushed NVDA below 190.
By contrast, on Liberation Day the two largest volume nodes were green, huge institutional buying moments that dwarfed nearby red candles and the prior 30 days of red candles, yet NVDA still made one more dip before the run began.
Six figures were put into Bitcoin today, with the position framed as close enough to the bottom to be attractive and with 90k as the expected target.
The Bitcoin trade is tied to 950 days from the previous halving and 500 days till the next halving, a window described as often good for positioning before the next move; the bigger move is expected in 2027, and some serious money was put down on that trade today.