Stocks bounced on Friday even after hot inflation data, but the setup remains range-bound with SPY rolling over into a possible midterm-style pullback. The notes lean bullish on equities after an expected reset, while arguing INTC is the standout AI trade: political visibility, insider buying, Pelosi-linked positioning, and a chart setup centered on $100, $108, and a possible run to 133. The key macro question is whether the market takes an 8% SPY drop to 714 and the 200-day moving average before resuming higher.
PPI rose 0.4% last month and 5.4% year over year; Thursday saw stocks fall while oil and treasury yields jumped.
Friday CPI rose 0.4%, annual inflation hit 3.4%, and core CPI rose 0.3%, leaving inflation hot.
Despite the CPI print, the Dow gained 509 points on Friday as oil dropped and buyers returned.
Markets ended Friday pricing an 86% chance of a quarter-point rate hike in the coming week.
SPY has been range bound for weeks, so the next week is framed through historical midterm-year pullback patterns.
Midterm-year history says a pullback is very consistent; one cited year saw only a 1.46% drop, but another saw a 20% drawdown, so a bigger flush remains possible.
With no significant pullback by mid-September, the average pullback in that setup is 8%, and after an 8% pullback the market finished higher before year-end 75% of the time.
The segment’s SPY map says an 8% drop would take SPY to 714, exactly to the 200-day moving average, while the chart has been making lower highs and lower lows into a 750 structural range.
INTC is framed as Nancy Pelosi and Donald Trump’s favorite stock pick; on September 6 Trump posted an AI-made Oval Office image showing multiple screens with INTC, described as moving from $20 to $95.
Howard Lutnick said Trump’s proposed 5,000 dividend checks could be funded by money the U.S. earns, citing the government’s Intel stake; the notes claim a 10% INTC stake would imply a $13.5 trillion valuation to fund a $1.35 trillion payout.
The notes claim Lip Butan bought $10 million of INTC, Pelosi bought 10,000 shares and about $500,000 of 2027 leaps, and the stock was ‘caught’ at $88 with half sold and plans to buy back on a red candle.
The INTC trade trigger is a two-candle confirmation above $108, with $108 also the neckline of an inverse head-and-shoulders setup and the key resistance for breakout confirmation.
The daily chart is described as a golden cross setup with the 13 crossing back above the 49; the prior 13/49 cross-under was linked to the drop to $80.
INTC reclaiming $100 is treated as a psychological sign of a new uptrend, and the neckline/$108 breakout is said to leave 133 technically possible.
The stop on INTC is set wide at $95, and the RSI setup is described as repeated taps just above 30 before explosive upside, with a fresh reset and reclaim above 40 viewed as critical.
The final bullish case is threefold: the golden cross is starting, $100 is being reclaimed, and momentum has reset from oversold back above 40 to retest the range top.