GLD is the buy: gold just broke out after a tight coil, with a technical setup that ties any pullback toward 384 to a move back toward 398-406. The macro backdrop stays supportive if rates keep falling for more than 6 months, since softer inflation or weaker jobs would push the Fed toward cuts and make a non-yield asset like gold more attractive. The same note set leans cautious on the broader tape: insider selling is extremely heavy, money market funds sit at an all-time-high $8.3 trillion, and low volatility is still enabling systematic funds to add leverage before a sudden move forces them to sell.
Expected earnings are ~$34-$35 per share on revenue of ~$8.5-$8.7 billion, with the setup hinging mainly on AI memory demand and 2027 guidance from SanDisk.
If the stock posts a strong reaction, the expected beneficiaries are NVDA, MU, AVGO, AAT, LRCX, QQQ, and SOXX.
NVDU is the after-hours vehicle for NVDA, and no position is taken before earnings; the plan is to wait for the market reaction.
Insider selling is described as 1,146 sells, zero buys, and $12 billion of volume this afternoon.
Money market funds hold $8.3 trillion, an all-time high, which is framed as investors staying cautious and waiting to buy dips near record equity prices.
A 5% market move in four trading days back to an all-time high has happened only three other times, including April 23, 1999.
GLD is the stock being bought now, on a recent breakout above the Bollinger Bands after a tight coil.
The last time GLD coiled this tightly was August 2025, and it then gained 60% over the next 5 months.
GLD’s daily MACD is close to printing a buy order, with the MACD line and signal line getting ready to cross above the zero line.
Immediate GLD resistance sits at 398-406, while the preferred pullback buy level is 384.
Any red candle in GLD is treated as a buy opportunity, with the idea to trickle in rather than make a single all-in entry.
The gold setup depends on more than 6 months of lower rates, possibly from softer inflation or weaker jobs data forcing Fed cuts.
Low volatility is said to encourage systematic funds to borrow more and buy more stocks, but a volatility spike would force quick selling and could turn a normal pullback into a larger drop.
The leverage/volatility warning is tied to what Michael Barry has been warning about: falling volatility breeds leverage, and a sudden decline forces de-risking.