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Peter Thiel Just Bet $419M On This

2026-08-31

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18 min read

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Thiel Macro’s new 8-stock buy list is a $419M bet on AI-driven electricity demand, nuclear supply, and one out-of-favor gold developer. The biggest disclosed positions are AMZN at roughly $118M, VIST at roughly $76M, and a cluster of utility names — AEP, CMS, FE, DTE — positioned for data centers, semis, and manufacturing that need vastly more grid capacity. The other major theme is gold: MINE pitches a near-term Ontario mine build with heavy insider ownership, Oaktree’s 8.19% stake, and a 2030 production target, but execution and dilution risk remain central.

  • Thiel Macro disclosed eight brand-new public stock positions totaling about $419M.
  • AMZN is the largest holding at 495,000 shares worth roughly $118M, about 28% of the reported portfolio.
  • AWS revenue recently grew around 37%, and Amazon’s AI business is already running at a $25B-plus annual rate.
  • Anthropic has made major computing commitments with AWS, OpenAI has entered major infrastructure arrangements involving AMZN, and Amazon is building its own AI chips to keep margin at the silicon layer instead of handing it to NVDA.
  • CMS has roughly $40M invested and says one additional gigawatt of new load could create about $2B to $5B of investment opportunities; it has discussed roughly 9 GW of potential new economic development demand.
  • FE has another roughly $40M position, with about 6.4 GW of contracted data center demand and a pipeline that rose around 30% in one quarter.
  • DTE has roughly $40M invested, expects about $30B of electrical-system investment between 2026 and 2030, and has a major upcoming customer tied to a huge Oracle data center project connected to OpenAI infrastructure.
  • AEP has roughly $42M invested, expects about 69 GW of additional electricity demand by 2030 backed by customer financial commitments, and expanded its five-year capital plan to about $78B.
  • XE is a roughly $4M position and is trying to commercialize smaller, repeatable nuclear reactors; Amazon has already invested in the technology and is working with XE on potential future nuclear projects.
  • VST is a roughly $59M position; its fleet spans natural gas, nuclear, solar, and battery storage, and Teo Macro rebuilt the stake to 372,755 shares after previously owning it.
  • Amazon signed a long-term agreement for nuclear electricity from VST’s Comanche Peak facility, and Meta has entered major agreements involving VST’s nuclear power.
  • VIST is the second-largest position at roughly $76M; it produces about 156,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, about 70% exported, from Vaca Muerta in Argentina, which holds the world’s second-largest shale gas resource and fourth-largest shale oil resource.
  • Argentina’s new regime gives Bandurria Norte 30-year tax and customs stability, and Thiel moved to Buenos Aires earlier this year, bought a house there, and met Milei at the presidential palace in April.
  • MINE’s sponsor pitch centers on Fenn-Gib in Timmins, Ontario: a 100% owned, near-surface open-pit gold deposit with a 4.3M-ounce indicated resource and a higher-grade 1M-ounce starter reserve near surface.
  • MINE says it is targeting a construction decision in 2028 and first production in 2030, versus comparable projects that spend about 8 years in permitting and financing and don’t reach construction until 2033.
  • The register is concentrated: HCRP Regatta and the director/senior officer group bought 218,000-plus shares at C$2.90, Muddy Waters bought 65,000 shares at C$2.21 in May and another 141,400 shares in early August at C$3.43 to C$3.68, CFO Kevin Annett bought 2,500 shares at C$1.98, CEO Drew Anwall bought 68,500 shares at C$2.76, and insider ownership is 35% with more than C$20M of insider buying since October 2024.
  • Oaktree filed a 13G showing 5.5M MINE shares, or 8.19% of the company, and bought 1M of those shares on August 19; Brookfield completed its acquisition of Oaktree this year with Howard Marks staying on.