BTC sits almost exactly on the 50-week moving average, with some exchange closes a hair above and others a hair below, while a hot nonfarm payroll print and an upcoming inflation report keep rate-hike odds and short-term direction in play. The core thesis is time: if BTC cannot roll over soon, the bear case weakens because the 50-week average is falling and multiple closes above it have historically marked the end of bear markets. Prior cycles showed both rejection and eventual breakout around this level in different ways, and 2015, 2019, and 2023 all ended bear markets after BTC got through the 50-week moving average. The next few days matter because the inflation report is about 5 days away and the Fed meeting follows the week after.
BTC is around $80,000 and closed essentially on the 50-week moving average: index 80,360 vs 80,361, Coinbase 80,339 vs 80,343, another exchange 80,412 vs 80,335.
The main exchange close was cents below the 50-week moving average, while some exchanges closed above it and others below it.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC printed a slightly higher high near 82,292, but that is still a lower high versus May.
Friday’s drop lined up with the nonfarm payroll report, which was described as a fairly hot jobs report.
A hotter labor-market print pushed rate-hike odds back up after they had fallen to about 50/50; earlier they had been around 67% for a hike.
Waller said he was not convinced and leaned toward holding rates steady at the next meeting unless inflation data supports a hike.
BTC’s selloff after the jobs data left bulls and bears fighting right at the 50-week moving average.
A Q4 low, if it is coming, needs to happen soon because the 50-week moving average is already trending down.
The 50-week moving average is falling, so BTC is already above this week’s level simply because the average declined.
The longer BTC sits on the 50-week moving average, the more likely it is to break through it; 2023 and 2019 both spent time there before breaking higher.
In 2015, BTC was rejected at the 50-week moving average, then dropped 12% the next week and later fell away again.
In 2019, BTC hovered near the 50-week moving average for a few weeks above it and then blasted through without a major rejection.
For a rejection to happen while the 50-week moving average is falling, BTC has to fall faster than the average itself is falling.
An inflation report is due later this week, about 5 days away, and the Fed meeting is the week after.
BTC has already rallied about 40% off the lows, which was framed as not that crazy for a summer move.
Summer 40% rallies happened in 2018, 2022, and 2026; in 2018 the last lower high rejection came in early September after another in July.
If BTC does not start fading soon, bears will run out of time to argue for bear-market continuation; by Q4 2025, being bearish made more sense because BTC usually tops then.
Multiple closes above the 50-week moving average usually mark the end of the bear market; 2015, 2019, and 2023 all ended that way.
BTC was also rejected by the 50-week moving average in earlier 2015 and in 2022, and in 2022 it got above the level but failed to follow through.
Some exchanges show BTC below the 50-week moving average and one or two show it above, leaving the market right in the middle.
If BTC resolves like prior midterm years, the move should not last much longer, because every extra day it stays elevated weakens the bear case.
Using Bitcoin fractals is less useful than comparing other markets, because BTC tops have come in a euphoric top, then a double top, then an apathetic top, and its lows have formed differently each cycle.
In the last cycle, BTC swept prior highs before bottoming, the first time that had happened; before that, prior bear-market lows had stayed well above prior cycle highs.
Travel for almost 10 days will reduce video output, and missing videos should not be read as a market signal.
A hotter inflation report would likely push rate-hike probability higher and, after the nonfarm payroll reaction, would likely push BTC lower in the short term.