Bitcoin is sitting at a key inflection point around its 200-week moving average and bear market resistance band, and Benjamin Cowen argues that one of those two levels will force a decision within the next couple of months, likely before year-end. He leans bearish near term: on-chain indicators are not fully reset, the window of weakness is opening, and he expects August to be red based on prior midterm years. Even so, he says short-term price action is not predictable, July was relatively strong, and he is not telling anyone not to DCA. His bigger-picture view is that the market cycle bottom should be in or very close by the end of November.
Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin was trading around 63.5k, with the 200-week moving average near 63.7k and the bear market resistance band around 69k.
He noted that last week Bitcoin closed at 63,500 versus a 200-week moving average of 63,551, leaving price essentially right on that level.
Cowen argued that the bear market resistance band is moving down while the 200-week moving average is moving up, so Bitcoin will eventually have to break one of them.
He said that before the end of the year, and probably within the next couple of months, Bitcoin must choose between breaking above the bear market resistance band or below the 200-week moving average.
Cowen said several on-chain indicators still need a reset, implying Bitcoin may need to go a little lower; he specifically said the NVRV Z-score tends to bottom below zero and is not there yet, though it is close.
He said he is not against DCAing Bitcoin and added that DCA in the second half of midterm years is normally the right long-term strategy.
Cowen said there is no guarantee Bitcoin will return to these levels, but he also said he cannot tell exactly which week Bitcoin will likely head back below 60K.
He pointed to 2022 as a precedent: Bitcoin got below the 200-week moving average, bounced, had a red week and then a green week in early August, and then suffered a larger drawdown.
He also cited 2018, saying the drop occurred basically right when August began, and in 2022 Bitcoin did not revisit the bear market resistance band until October because the band kept coming down.
Cowen said he is not promising any short-term price action because it is like geometric Brownian motion, a random walk that cannot be predicted.
He said the two levels will force Bitcoin to make a decision, and once that happens volatility should pick up a lot.
Cowen said volatility historically dies off in the summer, then a drop happens, then things reset, and then price goes up; he said this pattern happened in 2022, 2018, and 2014.
He said Bitcoin’s 2026 year-to-date ROI is basically tracking the average of prior midterm years, just slightly elevated.
Cowen said Bitcoin is entering the window of weakness, with perhaps about one latent week left where it could still show some strength, and that by mid to late August the window of weakness should open back up.
He said July has been the window of strength and is often green in midterm years, citing July 2022 up 20%, July 2018 up almost 40%, and this July up 7%.
Cowen said every prior midterm year saw August red for Bitcoin, citing August 2022 at -15%, August 2018 at -15%, August 2014 at -18%, and August 2010 at -5%.
He said a roughly 10% decline over the month would put Bitcoin at a slightly new low, and that it may go up first before coming down.
Cowen said he expects a lot of people on Twitter to argue the opposite, but he thinks claims like ‘if everyone expects it, it won’t happen’ are repeatedly wrong because things like a February low, a Q4 top, and a local top from sell in May and go away still happened.
He said by the end of November he thinks the market cycle bottom will either be in or really, really close to being in, which is why he scheduled the ITC conference near the end of November.
Cowen said there will be an ITC party and that the ITC conference is open to all tiers, though room may become limited as more people sign up.