BTC has rallied back to the 50-week moving average after a ~24% weekly surge, and the whole video turns on whether this move gets rejected like prior bear-market rallies or accepts above the 50W MA and ends the bear market. The recent low on July 1st lines up with the first day of the second half of the midterm year, matching the channel’s accumulation-window call, but time-based capitulation still argues the process may not be over. Historical analogs from 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023 all hinge on the same test: follow-through above the 50W MA confirms the bottom, while a quick rejection keeps the bear intact. The last segment shifts the focus to next week’s behavior near 101K, because a lingering move around the 50W MA would raise the odds of a real breakout.
BTC jumped about 24% last week and is now back at the 50-week moving average.
The July 1 low was the first day of the second half of the midterm year, matching the previously flagged accumulation window for that period.
Below 0.3 risk appeared only 5 days, and DCA continued through the second half of the midterm year below that threshold.
Four-year-cycle history and S&P 500 history both point to major lows clustering roughly every 4 years, with many S&P lows in September or October, including October 1966 and October 1974.
Different bear-market indicators disagree: MVRV Z-score, balance price, and realized price still point to lower prices, while Bitcoin supply in profit or loss and time-based capitulation argue more time is needed.
In 2025, a weekly close below the 50-week moving average was treated as the final nail in the coffin for the bull market.
Across prior cycles, BTC dropping below the 50-week moving average marked the bull market as over on weekly closes, especially after two weekly closes below it.
The 2022 case left BTC technically above the 50-week moving average for another week or two, while 2023 broke far above it with no ambiguity, and 2019 and 2015 confirmed the bear ended only after follow-through the next week.
BTC repeatedly bounced through the bear-market resistance band only to get rejected at the 50-week moving average: April 2022, July 2018, and 2015 all fit that pattern.
In 2018, BTC was rejected at the 50-week moving average in July after first wicking above it; in 2014, the first attempt through the 50-week moving average in the post-halving year failed before a later new low.
BTC has not actually reached the 50-week moving average yet in this move, and the January rally to almost 98K came when the 50-week moving average sat near 101K.
This is BTC’s first test of the 50-week moving average in the current bear market, and the key question is acceptance above it or below it.
If BTC can get through the 50-week moving average and hold above it with follow-through, the bear market is over; if it gets rejected, the rejection should happen sooner rather than later.
A real breakout would likely require BTC to linger near the 50-week moving average for weeks, then break through, possibly find support at the bull market support band, and break through again.
Next week is the key read on whether BTC is only rallying into another rejection or is doing something more.
A conference is set for November, with tickets priced to rise before September 1st.
Emotions are running really, really high right now.
Calling new lows over the last couple of months was framed as an academic exercise rather than a trading call.