Gold at 4,100 has been sliding since late August, and the setup into midterm-year Q4 is being framed as a yield story: the 10-year is around 5.2%, has risen for about eight straight weeks, and gold tends to turn when it starts to show strength despite rising yields. The base case is that gold can still print a low over the next few weeks — possibly into October or even early November — with the higher-low vs lower-low outcome tied to whether the long end tops sooner or keeps pressing higher. Stocks are still described as resilient, but the video expects the next durable inflection to come from the long end of the curve, not from a clean recession-style selloff. AI IPOs, especially Anthropic in a little over a month and OpenAI in likely 2027, are flagged as potential liquidity drains that can pull money out of markets ahead of listing.
Gold is at 4,100 and has been falling quickly since late August.
In midterm years, gold usually bottoms in the summer; 2022 was a July low that later made a lower low into October-November, while 2018 was a mid-August low followed by a higher October low.
The last three midterm-year setups produced a summer gold low followed by either a higher low or lower low in October-November, so the current pattern is not unusual.
Gold’s 2026 year-to-date path is being compared with 2022: a similar midyear bottom, a rally, then a return to the same area again.
The long end of the curve is the main pressure point: in 2018 and 2022, gold bottomed right before the 10-year topped, and the first sign of a top is expected to be gold strengthening while yields keep rising.
The 10-year yield is around 5.2% and has moved higher every week for about eight weeks; a local top is guessed around 5.12% plus or minus, and the 30-year around 6% plus or minus.
In 2018 and 2022, the 10-year top came in October-November, and risk assets did not start dropping until after that top.
This year’s stock weakness did not line up with higher yields: the February-March 2026 selloff happened while the 10-year was going down, and the May-June drop was also tied to a falling 10-year and was about 10% or less in the S&P.
2025 is used as another example of the same relationship flipping around growth scares: stocks held up while the 10-year rose, then both stocks and the 10-year fell once the 10-year turned down.
The stock market is still described as incredibly resilient and expected to go higher eventually; the stated approach is buying index funds monthly because timing is nearly impossible to do repeatably.
If stocks do correct, the expectation is for a higher low rather than a final top.
Anthropic’s IPO is said to be coming in a little over a month, and OpenAI’s is expected in likely 2027; IPO anticipation can pull money out of markets as capital crowds into the listing.
Around the SpaceX IPO in the summer, the S&P dropped about 5% beforehand, and earlier this year it dropped about 10% before the IPO.
Oil is still described as slowly marching higher on Middle East conflict and no resolution, while the president’s stance is that it will not be dealt with until after midterms, though headlines can change quickly.
The dollar is the base-case short-term bearish factor for gold: in 2018 and 2022 the dollar rose into the October window, and a stronger DXY would help push gold back down into September-October.
The yield backdrop is also being tied to policy: the 2-year is around 4.9% versus Fed funds near 4.0%, implying policy is about 90 bps below a neutral-rate approximation and not restrictive enough to force inflation back to target.