NASDAQ is down about 4% again today as the video frames the market as a 2018-style setup: hawkish Fed risk, trade wars/tariffs, severe regulatory scrutiny, Iran uncertainty, and fatigue. The claim is that midterm-style Q4 weakness can drag BTC down with equities, while year-to-date 2026 NASDAQ action looks very similar to 2018 and is already testing the July low. Oil at Brent 100 and WTI 90, plus more aircraft carriers heading toward the Iran conflict, reinforce the view that uncertainty is rising rather than fading. The conference promo is separate: Investing Through the Cycles is less than two and a half weeks away, with the first part on Friday of that week.
NASDAQ is down about 4% again today.
In 2018 after the November 6 US midterms, the S&P rallied about 2% on November 6 and about 2.12% on November 7, then gave back those gains and went lower into December.
In 2018 Q4, a roughly 20% stock-market collapse dragged BTC back down after BTC had already been weak all year, with a February low and a summer low.
The pattern claimed for midterm years is that Q4 stock-market drops take BTC down with them.
After the most likely priced-in outcome of the US midterms, markets rallied because the result mostly matched pricing; in Brazil a week or two ago, the less-likely outcome hit and the market dropped immediately without a rally.
In October 2018, Powell said rates were still a long way from neutral and signaled tightening into 2019 despite cooling data; the Fed then hiked in September 2018, skipped the next meeting, and hiked again in December 2018.
The 2018 SEP projected two more rate hikes in 2019, and today the Fed is still viewed as likely to hike again, with about a 75% chance in December.
The Fed-hike case is tied to Iran war risk and tariffs.
In the 2018 US-China trade war, CAT, MMM, and F warned that tariff costs were cutting profit margins.
2018 tech valuation reversals, including FANG stocks, were tied partly to severe regulatory scrutiny, and the same mix is claimed now: severe regulation, Iran war risk, tariffs, and a hawkish Fed.
Year-to-date 2026 NASDAQ action looks really similar to 2018, with NASDAQ testing the July low.
Oil is cited at Brent 100 and WTI 90, while more aircraft carriers are being sent and the Iran conflict is not clearly over.
If Democrats take the House and Senate, next year could bring more oversight and pushback, but January is still two months away.
South Korea hit circuit breakers again yesterday, tariffs are described as universal rather than only a China issue, and more AI regulation is expected in the next couple of months.
If BTC drops hard into Q4, the most bullish holders all year are expected to capitulate at the lows, after which the next bull market begins; BTC is expected to test its corresponding low if NASDAQ holds its July-low test.
The S&P has already reversed its gains more aggressively than in 2018, and the setup is expected to keep playing out; Investing Through the Cycles is less than two and a half weeks away, with the first part on Friday of that week.
NASDAQ, BTC, and the S&P are treated as the same macro trade through the whole setup: if the equity tape keeps breaking, BTC follows.