The core thesis is that US real estate is at or near a cycle top after a run that began around 2011-2012, with the next 18-year-cycle phase likely bringing slowdown first and a trough around 2029-2030 rather than an immediate 2008-style collapse. That cycle view is used to frame cross-asset sequencing: real estate tops first, then stocks, then metals and energy, while the dollar should weaken later-cycle and commodities can still squeeze higher before a larger reset. Bitcoin is treated as a hard-to-time, lower-return-than-last-cycle trade from here: 57K still leaves room for 100K-150K, but diminishing returns, weaker credit, and a possible 2028-2029 global downturn cap the upside. The practical takeaway is selective, local real-estate buying in beaten-down areas, patience on BTC, and less faith in another straight-line risk-asset melt-up.
Jason Pazino’s 18-year US real-estate framework, built from ~220 years of US sales data back to 1800, puts the current cycle’s start around 2011-2012 and flags the present as the top.
That cycle’s first half was marked by fear, recession calls, Europe/Greece stress, and disbelief the new cycle had started; the 2020 co-event interrupted the prior peak that ran from about 2018 into early 2020.
The late-cycle setup is described as a winner’s curse: 2023-2024 as the last two years of the second half, with major IPOs, huge construction, and leverage showing up across the market.
US real estate is viewed as top-heavy but fragmented: some markets have been correcting since about 2022, while San Francisco and parts of the West Coast are bouncing after years of decline.
A cycle low comparable to 2008 was cited around 1989-1992, and this cycle is expected to be less severe than 2008 because homebuilders are less leveraged and hold less land than last time.
Australia is already showing a sharper downturn than the US: since May, after a budget change, some areas are down 5%-10% and top-end property is down 20%-25%, with rates at 4.35 after repeated hikes.
The housing-cycle template used here says real estate peaks first, then stocks, then metals, then energy; for US national-average housing, the trough would likely arrive about four years after the peak, implying 2029-2030 if the peak is now.
DHI, the biggest US homebuilder, peaked in 2005, printed lower highs in 2006 and 2007, and was about 70% below its high by the stock-market peak; it then bottomed before the broad market and later peaked again in late 2024.
The last cycle saw about 27 months between the DHI peak and the stock-market peak, which is why the next stock-market peak is being watched for roughly the first half of 2027.
Bitcoin can still rally, but the last bull-market style of huge multi-hundred-percent gains is less likely because diminishing returns mean each cycle should deliver less.
If 57K is BTC’s low, a 100% move targets about 120K and a 200% move about 180K; even then, a rally is harder to imagine if credit keeps contracting, the economy weakens, and stocks roll over in a year or two.
A stock-market peak can lag the real-estate peak by multi-year spans: 2007 followed 2006, mid-1990 followed 1989, the 1973 stock top followed the 1972 real-estate top, and 1929 stocks outlasted the 1926 real-estate peak.
Midcycle slowdowns usually need a separate shock, and the 2020-early-2023 stretch is framed that way via the pandemic, the 2022 bear market/inflation scare, and SVB’s collapse.
The Fed is typically late, and the US may need at least one rate hike before cycle-end; a Trump post on X/Twitter saying higher rates signal a strong economy was contrasted with his prior push for Powell to cut.
The dollar is still up in 2026 YTD but has been making higher highs and higher lows; the call is for a move toward 104-105, then lower into the pre-election/election year, with 97.5 as a key line and 1016 as the current peak referenced in the notes.
Gold and silver already popping while oil lingers fits the late-cycle pattern; gold is treated as a dead-cat bounce within a downtrend that should consolidate this year, with the real answer expected in 2027 after a 16-19 month window.