The setup is bearish until proven otherwise: this week’s gains came from shorts, SPY is near a downside break, VIX under 15 is being read as a warning, and the next macro prints — FOMC minutes on Wed. Aug. 19 at 2 p.m. ET and flash PMI on Fri. Aug. 21 at 8:45 a.m. CT — are the catalysts to watch. The clearest company-level warning is WMT, where a weekly double top, a first-since-2022 MACD sell signal, and a 103 measured move all point to downside risk, especially if earnings disappoint and 110 breaks. On the long side, RIOT already has a tight-stop entry at $18.99, and INTC is only a conditional long if a right shoulder forms and price confirms around 90 with 108 as neckline. The base case remains a flush lower with any rebound likely to fail rather than start a durable recovery.
This week’s profits came from shorting the market, not from longs.
SPY on the 12-hour chart returned to the bottom of a prior range, paused, then gapped below it.
SPY is close to hitting the "nine" and is expected to tap it on the next move.
If SPY opens below the 30 EMA on the 12-hour chart, a "pretty significant flush day" is expected.
In that flush scenario, SPY is expected to revisit 753, marked as support on a descending line; a strong wick instead would point back to 771.
VIX closed near 14, and readings under 15 are being treated as a market-warning zone where profit-taking or fear tends to show up.
Retail earnings this week are framed as a potential recession signal: they can either calm recession fears or intensify them.
FOMC minutes are scheduled for Wed., Aug. 19 at 2 p.m. Eastern, with hawkish-vs-dovish clues on future rate moves the key market input.
US flash manufacturing and services PMI is scheduled for Fri., Aug. 21 at 8:45 a.m. Central and is expected to give a fresh growth-and-inflation read.
WMT has a weekly double top; confirmation requires breaking the valley/neckline to the downside, with a measured move target at 103.
WMT’s weekly MACD just crossed below the zero line, described as the first such cross since 2022 and a major bearish event.
WMT’s MACD stayed above zero for a long time: the first cross above zero happened near 44, and the stock later ran to 140.
If WMT loses 110 after earnings, the next downside target is at least 103; if earnings are bad, 103 is treated as likely.
WMT would not be a long-term buy again until the weekly MACD curls up and crosses back above zero.
RIOT was bought today at 18.99 with a very tight stop-loss because the market backdrop is bearish.
INTC is a conditional long around 90 only if a right shoulder forms and a candle hits 90 then wicks for confirmation; 108 is the neckline, and the stock was previously at 138.