Bitcoin at $79,000 on September 9 sits at a spot where prior golden crosses often led to sharp corrections, not immediate trend continuation. The historical map here is mixed: 2023 saw a ~12% post-cross drop, 2019 a 15% drop, 2015 a ~50% top, and 2014 a 50%–60% slide after a pre-cross top, so a low-70s pullback would still fit a bull market if it later makes a higher high. The key test is what happens after any move into $70K–$75K: a rebound to new highs supports the bull case, while a bounce that stalls at a lower high points toward a 2014-2015-style failure. The ISM/BTC divergence is used as another warning sign: when ISM rose, BTC can still fall, and the same divergence has already happened this year.
BTC was at $79,000 on September 9, with the footage recorded before a 10-day New Zealand trip and released later.
Golden crosses on BTC have historically been followed by corrections even when the low was already in.
In 2023, BTC fell about 12% after the golden cross, from February 2 to February 13, over about 10 days.
In 2019, BTC fell 15% after the golden cross, and the drop happened in just 3 or 4 days.
The 2019 and 2023 setups are treated as similar weekly breakouts through the bull market support band near prior cycle starts.
In 2015, BTC rallied well above the bull market support band, then got a golden cross and that marked the top.
From July 12 to about August 17 in 2015, BTC fell about 50%.
In 2014, BTC topped just before a golden cross and then dropped about 50% to 60% into the October low.
Across 2014, 2015, 2019, and 2023, BTC still saw at least a 10% to 15% correction over a few days to a week or two after golden crosses.
During the pandemic, BTC rallied to the prior high, topped just before it, then fell about 60%; before the pandemic hit, it had already dropped about 20%, bounced, and then the pandemic arrived.
A 10% drop from the local high would put BTC around $73K to $74K; a 15% drop would put it near $70K.
A low-to-mid-$70K drawdown would still fit a bull-market interpretation, but a drop followed by a lower high would look more like 2014-2015.
At the start of this year, ISM traders were saying ISM would rise in 2026 and therefore BTC would rise; the counterpoint was that in 2014 ISM rose while BTC fell.
The same ISM-versus-BTC divergence happened this year: ISM went up and BTC went down.
If BTC drops to roughly $70K to $75K and then rallies, the key check is whether the rebound makes a lower high or a higher high; new highs would support the bull case more strongly.
After the 2019 red death-cross rally ended, BTC made a new local high within about a week, and after the 2019 drop it returned to new local highs within about a week or so.
If BTC does not rally to a new local high after a drop, the implication is that the low is still ahead; a down-up-down pattern like 2023 could still happen, but then the low is more likely in and BTC would likely head back up afterward.
The current guess is BTC may be between $70K and $75K in a week, but that is explicitly called dubious speculation and could be wrong.