BTC is framed as bearish short term but still inside a longer cycle setup where November could be the best buy window if the prior halving patterns repeat. The near-term call is for chop, one more shakeout lower, then a pivot to a long toward 90K after a 75K/76K area is tagged, while SPY is still holding support but remains hostage to the election and the next October jobs report. The cycle thesis leans on halving timing, a 952-day relationship from the last halving, and a 500-days-before-halving low framework, with the warning that a black swan could drag BTC toward 59,500. INTC is used as the pivot example: bullish until smart money and Trump sold, then the narrative broke and price fell.
BTC was at 87,000 when a prior update called for a drop and a leverage short; profits were locked after the move down, and the short was still on while BTC was still above 82,000.
81,000 was labeled the critical BTC support; a break was expected to send price to 76,000-75,000, "as low as 76."
The BTC short has now been closed, with the view that price is not going lower right now and should consolidate at current levels.
BTC is described as bearish overall, but the prior-cycle coin stack is "never" sold and BTC trading is still being done successfully in the bear market.
The halving-cycle thesis says winter and cycle timing are "no longer in play," while technicals are still working exactly as in prior cycles.
BTC analysts track about 950 days after a low; 952 days from the last halving is mapped to the current "red downturn" area, and 500 days before the halving is said to mark the low before the next rise.
November is called very pivotal for BTC, and the past-cycle halving setup is used to argue November is the best time to potentially buy BTC if the pattern repeats.
A tight BTC range of 80K to 75K is expected to build a right shoulder in a head-and-shoulders pattern, then rip to around 91K.
The 91K move is expected to trap retail buyers who waited for 75K, then force liquidations when price returns to a blue moving-average line.
A further drop from the blue moving-average area to 59,500 is included as a possible black-swan shakeout, though that part of the prediction is said may not happen.
The preferred BTC buy zone is 68,000-69,000, but there is "no guarantee" it will be offered because BTC can move too fast to linger there.
The BTC plan is to pivot from shorts to a long after 76K is hit, targeting 90K next; more chop and maybe one more move down are still possible first.
SPY is still holding support, with trigger lines at 764 and 783; back above 764 maps to 783, while failure by the end of this week at 750 risks breaking a months-long ascending channel and revisiting 714.
SPY is beneath the 60% RSI level, which is treated as cooled momentum that could reverse, even toward a crash, and the direction is said to stay unknown until the election and the next October jobs report are done.
INTC is the pivot example: it was bullish on technical strength and because "Nancy and Trump were loaded up," but after Trump and other smart money sold, the narrative flipped and price dropped.