BTC at $86,000 has already broken above the May high, forcing a rewrite of the earlier bearish macro chain that linked XLE strength, 10-year yields near 5%, Fed hikes, USD strength, and a BTC drop. The new read is that BTC has held a higher-high structure, rallied about 50% off the summer low, and has not respected the usual post-rate-hike weakness seen in prior cycles. Midterm-year analogs still matter, but the video argues they now cut both ways: BTC can stay strong into late September unless stocks correct hard enough to drag it down. The key test is whether any Q4 weakness becomes a higher low or a deeper retrace below realized price; absent a major equity washout, bears have the burden of proof.
BTC is trading around $86,000 and has moved above the May high after the earlier call that it could not clear that level proved wrong.
The original macro chain — rising energy prices via XLE, then 10-year yields to about 5%, then the Fed raising rates starting in September, then a stronger dollar, then BTC lower — did not produce the expected BTC selloff.
XLE has had a strong move over the last few months, the 10-year ran to about 5%, and the 30-year set new highs, which was taken to force the Fed into rate hikes.
The USD made a low, then a higher low, then another higher low; BTC was expected to weaken on that higher-low dollar structure, but instead BTC rose alongside the dollar and diverged from the prior pattern.
A prior dollar double-bottom lined up with BTC’s local top, but this time BTC did not drop after the same kind of double-bottom and instead moved higher.
BTC put in a February low, matching the 2014-style pattern and the broader midterm-year tendency for February lows that also line up with summer lows in 2018, 2022, and 2026.
In midterm years BTC has historically rallied in the second half, then rolled over later; 2018 showed about a 40%-45% rally off the lows, and 2022 showed about a 40% rally off the lows.
The expected ~40% summer rally was discussed back in July, but July barely moved and the breakout did not come until August; from the low BTC has now rallied about 50%, bigger than the last two midterm-year summer moves.
Unlike 2018 and 2022, when the summer rally produced lower highs, BTC has now printed a higher high.
ETFs and the midterm-year setup are cited as reasons BTC may be more correlated with traditional markets now and can stay bullish into late September.
2018 saw the stock market peak on September 21 and then fall about 20%; 2014 saw a September 19 high and then about a 10% drop; 2010 was different, with the stock market bottoming in early July and rising into year-end.
The last major wrong BTC call before this one was in 2023: expecting BTC not to exceed $35,000 for the rest of the year, only for BTC to break through it in late 2023 around October.
The current stance is that the bullish structure should be respected unless BTC fully retraces; the burden of proof has shifted to bears because bulls have already printed a higher high.
The rate-hike thesis is now labeled data-not-rooted: BTC did not consistently dump after hikes, including December 2015 when it continued higher after the first hike and March 2022 when it went up initially after the first hike.
September 2022 is cited as a direct parallel: after the rate hike BTC went up, and later the FTX collapse knocked it down about 15% from the hike level without creating a new low; after rate hikes, BTC tends to do well for the first month or so.
Any Q4 weakness is framed as depending on a stock-market correction; a 10% S&P drop is said not to be enough to force BTC to a new low, and a much larger equity drawdown would be needed.
NASDAQ is back at a new high, which is described as consistent with prior midterm years where NASDAQ often trades at new highs around September.
If weakness appears in a month or two, the plan is to check whether it resolves into a higher low; a macro higher low may print after the midterms, not before.
The first ITC conference is scheduled in Miami, with main conference day on November 21 and speakers including Michael Sailor, Grant Cardone, Sim, Mark Yusco, Allesio, James, Mike Mclo, Guy, Rob, Gareth, David, Jason, Leah, Tom, FA, Randy, Evan, Dana, Matt Crosby, and Mauricio.