BTC is back below the 50-week moving average after six straight red weeks, with the latest weekly close confirming the prior break above 83K was a fake-out and not a fresh bull start. The pattern is framed as closer to 2018/2019-style fake-outs than 2023, with downside risk into the next FOMC on December 9 and a likely low forming over the next couple of months, either lower or higher. Cross-asset timing matters: capital may be rotating toward major IPOs, with SpaceX and especially Anthropic pulling liquidity as Anthropic’s IPO is guessed for November 19 and described as well oversubscribed. Bitcoin dominance is expected to keep rising while stablecoin market cap keeps making new lows, even as BTC stair-steps lower toward 72-73K, 69K, and 63-64K support.
BTC is back below the 50-week moving average after unwinding its September move almost every week, with six red weeks in a row and five already completed.
The latest red week matched the weekly close back below the 50-week moving average; the break above 83K is described as a fake-out confirmed by two weekly closes back below 83K.
The move off the 50-week moving average was only about 9% to 10% this time, versus roughly 30% to 40% after reclaiming it in 2023 and 2019.
BTC is being compared to 2015, 2019, and 2022 because it has repeatedly swept prior highs, then given them back; 2021 is treated as a worse comparison because it happened at the end of a bull market.
The current cycle is compared with first rate hikes in 2015, 2022, and 2026: after the first hike BTC rallied, then gave the gains back; December 2015 also saw BTC about 20% below the hike level before later rallying and fading again.
December 2018 is used as the hawkish-Fed template: the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections then implied two 2019 hikes, but no hikes came; the next Fed meeting is December 9 and current pricing shows about a 14% chance of a 50 bp hike.
BTC is expected to stay weak into the next FOMC, with a low likely over the next couple of months that could be either a lower low or a higher low; if it is a lower low, it is framed as making 2027 easier to turn bullish on.
Smaller-timeframe structure is stair-stepping lower, with support at $72K-$73K around the 20-week moving average, then ~$69K, then $63K-$64K.
BTC is said to be tracking the weak Q4 midterm-year template: 2018 matched on structure with a February low, a summer low, and a seller low near 5,700 versus 57,000 recently, though 2026 differs because BTC was above the 50-week moving average before returning below it.
The 2018 analog is extended to the macro: BTC bottomed around the December 2018 FOMC, and current weakness is presented as similar to that hawkish setup rather than to 2023.
Major IPOs are framed as liquidity drains: people free up capital ahead of them, SpaceX is cited as a case where BTC started selling off about 30 days before the mid-June IPO, and SpaceX itself is predicted to surge 50% to 60% like Tesla did at launch.
After the initial IPO surge, the next one to two months are described as the better entry window because a large drop usually follows; the S&P 500 also fell into the SpaceX IPO.
BTC is said to have started selling off about 30 days before the Anthropic IPO, with the IPO guessed for November 19, possibly November 16 or the 20th, and news says it is well oversubscribed.
Crypto is weakening into the Anthropic IPO because capital is being freed for the deal and the AI narrative is stronger than crypto right now; if BTC makes a higher low, concern rises about having to deal with the OpenAI IPO and then another selloff.
BTC dominance is expected to keep rising, dominance excluding stables is already making new highs, and stablecoin market cap is dumping to new lows after lows in February and again in July/August.
MicroStrategy is used as the blowoff-top template: it fell below the 50-week moving average, rallied back above it, then dropped back below, a pattern described as a first counter-trend rally, then a second, then fading, base-building, and another attempt higher.