Gold is in a midterm-year weakness window: it’s below $4,000/oz, roughly 30% off, and the base case is a low between now and the July-October window before a rebound into a new higher high. The call leans on prior midterm-year analogs: 2022’s 22% drawdown, 2008’s 34%, 2006’s 26%, with 2018 and 2022 bottoming in mid-August and late September, respectively. Silver has been hit harder and is already at its bull market support band, but it may keep lagging until gold’s low is in. The video closes with an ITC conference pitch for November 20-22 in Miami covering Bitcoin, gold, and equities.
Gold is trading below $4,000/oz and is down about 30%.
Seasonality points to corrections throughout the midterm year for gold, and the expectation going into this year was a sizeable midterm-year correction.
Gold’s 2026 year-to-date path resembles 2022 at the same point.
The 2022 gold drawdown was about 22%, the 2008 drawdown about 34% before bottoming, and the 2006 drawdown about 26% in that bull market.
Gold bottomed in late September 2022 and in about mid-August 2018; averaging those midterm years puts the low in the August-September window.
The base case is gold’s low lands sometime between now and the July-October window, with the timing of the low mattering more than the exact price.
Gold’s bull market support band is around $3,800; it briefly went below that band in 2022 and 2008, and the band has not been checked since 2023.
From the current price, a move to $3,800 would require about a 4% drop; gold is also about 5-6% down from the yearly open, versus closer to 10-11% around the lows in the last two midterm years.
After the midterm-year low forms, the gold bull market could theoretically continue into the end of the decade, with the expected sequence being support in July-October and then a push back to a new higher high.
Silver has taken a big hit, is now at its bull market support band, and has fallen more than gold.
The February call was that the gold-silver ratio was really low, so gold would outperform silver for a while; silver could attract more attention after gold bottoms, but as long as gold keeps falling silver could keep underperforming.
Silver is getting close to its prior tops; below $50/oz would be a deep value zone.
Even if silver’s bottom is already in, it could still bounce off bull market support and go nowhere for a while, as in the '70s.
ITC is November 20-22 in Miami and will cover Bitcoin, gold, and equities with many speakers.