SPY is framed as bearish into the Fed: no front-running, wait for the 2:45-2:50 p.m. Eastern flush window, then short QQQ if the market reacts badly. The setup expects SPY to either fade toward 753-750 if the Fed disappoints, or rip back toward 771 only on a strong positive surprise, with RSI already below 50 and price in the bottom half of a bearish ascending channel. The broader trade thesis stays constructive on memory stocks despite the weekend selloff tied to talk of slower advanced-AI development: the pullback in MU, AMD, INTC, NVDA, and AVGO is treated as a buyable setup, not a broken fundamental story. INTC is the most specific individual setup: wait for a move above 108 for real momentum, or watch tomorrow for a 90 tap-and-bounce with RSI backtests and a 60% reclaim that could open a run to 117.
SPY is said to "absolutely look like it wants to roll over," with the plan to avoid front-running the Fed decision.
The expected flush window is 2:45-2:50 p.m. Eastern, when the Fed starts hard questions; if that flush shows up, the trade is to short QQQ.
SPY sits in a bearish ascending channel that "usually break[s] to the downside," and the warning flag is price staying in the bottom half of that channel.
If the Fed is received badly, SPY is expected to pull back into structure at 753-750; if the market likes what is said, SPY is expected to shoot back to the channel middle near 771.
RSI recently fell below 50 and price spent the last 2 days in the bottom half before back-testing 50%, reinforcing the bearish posture.
A prior NFLX trade was closed for a "beautiful 6K win" after a buy around 7740, additional shares on a deeper dip, and a take-profit at 80.30.
NFLX is not being re-entered before the Fed; the preferred setup is for the market to fall first so there is a better entry.
The memory-trade thesis ties to a claim that slowdowns in advanced AI development would mean fewer GPUs and AI servers, reducing HBM demand.
After the weekend narrative shift around slower advanced AI development, MU dropped more than 5%, AMD fell more than 4%, INTC was hit, and NVDA and AVGO sold off.
The semiconductor index fell nearly 6% during that pullback, but the move is treated as a setup rather than a broken fundamental story.
The counter-thesis on memory stocks is that AI server demand remains strong and memory pricing remains elevated, with no major AI company announcing massive spending cuts.
The pullback in memory stocks is framed as another opportunity to buy, with continued participation planned despite fear and no current position held.
For INTC, nothing exciting is expected until price gets above 108; price has pulled back from there without a breakout or confirmation.
INTC is now consolidating below the psychological 100 level, and the preferred re-entry is a tap of 90 followed by a bounce, not a simple print of 90.
If INTC hits 90 and closes below 90, that is treated as a different setup; the desired confirmation is an RSI backtest and a bounce/retest of the 60% level.
If INTC gets above the 60% level, the move is described as really taking off, with a potential run to 117.
The plan into tomorrow is patient risk participation: watch the market at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, consider a QQQ short near 2:50-3:00, and otherwise wait for red candles and clearer technical confirmation.
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