Benjamin Cowen’s case is that gold’s 2026 pullback still looks like normal bull-market behavior, not a cycle top, because the decline is only about 30% off the high and prior gold bull markets absorbed 20% to 30% drawdowns without ending. He frames the current setup around longer-term support levels, midterm-year seasonality, and a possible dollar-led dip, while arguing gold may be in a large consolidation similar to 2022 before a later push higher. His base case is at least a bounce soon, with the next meaningful bottom likely in the June-to-October window if the bull market remains intact. Longer term, he thinks gold still looks fine and could set up one final move up that ends the decade, with some strength potentially carrying into late 2026 and 2027.
Benjamin Cowen said gold has rebounded slightly off the lows and is still acting like a bull market rather than a finished top.
He said that in gold bull markets, price often returns to the 20-month simple moving average or 21-month EMA, and he uses those longer-term averages rather than SMAs for the bull market support band because commodities move more slowly than crypto or stocks.
He noted that in prior gold bull markets, including the 2000s and the 1970s, gold often tested that level and sometimes fell below the bull market support band before continuing higher.
He said it is possible the macro top for gold over the next 20 years is already in, but he does not think that is the case.
He said gold’s 2026 year-to-date ROI looks basically like 2022 and 2018, with 2026 slightly underperforming 2022 year-to-date and 2018 having more initial upside.
He pointed out that in 2014 gold kept falling until November before finding a low, but that price was basically around the same area it is now or has been.
He said that on average prior midterm years show gold bottoming in early July, and that the broader bottoming window in midterm years is arguably June through October.
He said the weakness in gold could simply be normal midterm-year weakness, especially since gold has already corrected about 30% from the high.
He argued that prior gold bull markets have seen 20% to 30% drawdowns without the bull market ending, so he cannot turn bearish on gold right now.
He said gold spent a long time consolidating around 2000, and the move above that area is its initial breakout beyond that level.
He expects at least a bounce in gold in the not-so-distant future, and if gold makes one more drop he thinks it could front-run a stock drop and bottom sooner than a stock correction.
He said he does not really see a stock correction starting until sometime in late September.
He said any gold correction would likely come with the dollar moving higher, and he said the 2026 dollar resembles 2018 because it is begrudgingly drifting higher.
He said that in both Donald Trump’s current term and Biden’s term, gold was weak in the second year of the officeholder’s term and then picked back up in the third and fourth years.
He said if the dollar moves up again in a month or two, that could correspond to weakness in gold, but the gold correction could be either a higher low or a lower low and is hard to pin down.
He said gold has not even tagged the bull market support band, so there is no guarantee it needs to touch that level before moving higher.
He thinks gold is going through a massive consolidation in 2026, similar to the one he said he expected back in 2025 and similar to the massive consolidation in 2022.
He described the pattern as a move up, then a consolidation, another move up, then another consolidation, and said gold could get one final move up that ends the decade and potentially marks a more global top for a while.
He said gold is remarkably tracking what it did in 2022 and, if the pattern continues, could keep going up into mid-August before possibly one more period of weakness and then getting back in business.
He said that in the cycle before that, 2018 was a bad year, 2019 and 2020 were up, and 2021 was slightly down, while 2023 and 2024 saw gold moving up again.
He said the years after midterm years tend to be bullish for gold, and that on average prior pre-election years show gold up about 13% through the pre-election year, which would be next year.
He concluded that gold is trying to carve out a bottom and use it as support to go higher later this year and/or into 2027.
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