Gold’s 2026 pullback is framed as a normal midterm-year consolidation inside a still-intact bull market, not a major top. The key reference zone is the 20-month moving average / 21-month EMA bull market support band, which gold has not yet tagged, while the current drawdown from the high is about 30% — a size seen in prior bull markets without ending them. 2026 is tracking 2022 closely on a year-to-date basis, with the next likely sequence a bounce, possibly one more weakness window into the June-to-October bottoming period, then a renewed push higher into late 2026 or 2027. The main risk cited is a firmer dollar, especially if the DXY keeps grinding higher over the next month or two, which could front-run a stock correction expected around late September.
Gold rebounded slightly off the lows, but remains in a correction of about 30% from the high.
The gold bull market support band uses the 20-month moving average and 21-month EMA, not SMAs.
In the 2000s and 1970s gold bull markets, price often returned to that support band and sometimes fell below it without ending the bull market.
Gold has not even tagged the bull market support band yet, and there is no guarantee it will before moving higher.
Gold’s 2026 year-to-date path is basically 2022: slightly larger early-year upside than 2022, then a bit of underperformance afterward.
Gold also looks basically like 2018 year-to-date, except 2018 had more initial upside and ended as a down year with the low not found until November.
Across prior midterm years, gold bottoms in early July on average, with the main midterm-year bottoming window running from June through October.
A bounce is expected in the not-so-distant future, and if gold gets one more drop it would likely front-run a stock correction and bottom sooner than equities.
A stock correction is not expected until sometime in late September.
If gold has one more correction, it is likely to be driven by the dollar going higher; the recent Dixie correction has been helping risk assets rally.
The dollar in 2026 is expected to resemble 2018: it just begrudgingly grinds higher.
The dollar in Donald Trump’s current term looks remarkably similar to his first term: down in year 1, sideways in year 2, then higher afterward.
In Trump’s current term, in Biden’s term, and in Trump’s first term, gold was weak in the second year of office and then picked back up in years 3 and 4.
Geopolitical uncertainty is expected to increase, which supports the case that the 2026 weakness is not a macro top.
Gold is going through a massive consolidation period in 2026, similar to the consolidation seen in 2022.
The expected long-term sequence is move up, consolidation, move up, consolidation, then one final move up to end the decade, potentially marking a more global top for a while.
If the 2022-style pattern continues, gold could keep rising into mid-August, then see one more weakness period before moving back up.
Years after midterm years tend to be bullish for gold, and pre-election years average about +13% for gold.
Gold moved up in 2023, 2024, and 2025 after the bad 2018 year, while 2019 and 2020 also rose and 2021 was slightly down.