SpaceX is being priced like a busted post-IPO float despite four upside pillars: Starship, Starlink, xAI/Grok, and a large GPU/compute business. The near-term problem is supply: the stock has already fallen more than 50% from its high, printed $107 after the $135 IPO, and another 1 billion shares are set to unlock around August 6, with 56% of supply still due this year. The bull case is that the company is building faster than the market expects: Starship Flight 13 worked across launch, recovery, and payload deployment, while Grok 4.5, 4.7, and 5 are being stacked fast enough to challenge Anthropic and OpenAI. The video’s main warning is that if one of the four pillars fails, the packaged thesis breaks, but if the unlock is absorbed and the business turns profitable, the current valuation could look cheap in hindsight.
Since the July 2026 IPO, SPACEX has fallen more than 50% from its all-time high and hit a new low of $107; the IPO price was $135 and the stock was around $111 at recording.
Only 4% of SPACEX’s share supply was available to the public out of roughly 16 billion shares, so the early price action is treated as a low-float repricing test.
Another 1 billion SPACEX shares are expected to unlock around August 6, two days before the August 7 quarterly report, and 56% of the remaining supply is still slated to unlock through year-end.
SPACEX reported a $4.5 billion net loss in 2025, and the stock is described at about 80x trailing sales with no profit yet.
The bull case is built on four pillars: Starship, Starlink, the AI opportunity, and manufacturing that outclasses peers.
Starship Flight 13 last week is described as the first mission to clear three tests at once: reach space, recover both objects back on Earth, and deploy payloads into orbit.
Flight 13 carried 20 V3 Starlink satellites and used a “Pez dispenser” payload system, framed as real production hardware tied into the Starlink network.
The V3 satellites are described as giving roughly 20x the capability of V2, including direct-to-cell and much higher bandwidth than current Starlink terminals.
Starship is described as a 470-ft vehicle with 33 Raptor engines, capable of sending roughly 5,000 tons into space to deploy Starlink satellites.
The booster did not do its arms landing test on Flight 13, but still logged a decent landing, and the ship floated softly on the ocean for more than 2 days, almost 3, without exploding.
Heat-shield performance is described as improving from Flight 10 to Flight 13, supporting a rapid-reusability thesis.
The next Starship launch is expected to test the ship’s landing on the chopstick arms, while Gwynne Shotwell’s cadence call is one Starship per month in 2026 and 1 to 400 Starships in 2027.
Starship production is described as 1 ship every 14 days now, with ships 41 through 48 in simultaneous production; the first ship took 160-something days, the next is targeted for 100 days, then 50.
The AI angle ties SPACEX to xAI: SPACEX and xAI are described as having merged pre-IPO, with SPACEX owning the Grok models, and Grok 4.5 framed as 80% to 90% of a frontier model while being cheap and fast.
The Grok roadmap is described as 4.5 now, 4.7 in 2 weeks, then Grok 5 two weeks after that, each larger than the last and meant to catch Anthropic’s frontier models and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6.
The compute business is framed as a near-cloud operation selling $60 worth of compute over the next 9 to 12 months, while Anthropic is described as paying $1.25 billion per month for that compute.
SPACEX’s GPU cluster is described as one of the largest and still expanding, with Colossus 4 announced a few weeks ago and the first Colossus build taking 160-something days.
The company is framed as a packaged bet on a space-launch company, a telecom company, a GPU data center, and a frontier AI lab; Tesla is added as a frontier robotics company, and the long-term AI upside is tied to robots needing a brain and to satellite AI trained on solar energy.
The bearish event to watch is the supply unlock through the end of this year; the bullish watch items are whether the August 7 report shows a profitability turn and whether the market gives a better entry after the unlock instead of at today’s price.