SpaceX is framed as a rare asset that is still too expensive even after a >50% drop in about 6 weeks, because massive share unlocks, first-ever earnings on August 4, and dilution from an all-stock Cursor deal could keep pushing it lower. The core valuation split: Starlink carries the bulk of the worth, launch is a smaller but profitable piece, and AI is a big optionality bet offset by huge current losses and capex. On the other side, ZENA is pitched as a roll-up of old field-service businesses layered with AI drones, with July 21 defense demos marking an early move from test range toward end users, but with execution, funding, and policy risk still front and center.
SpaceX is said to be the biggest IPO in capital markets history, yet the stock is down >50% from its high in about 6 weeks, wiping out north of $1T of market value.
The selloff is tied to risk-off conditions, potential rate hikes, the Iran war, and fear of mass-scale share dumping over the coming couple of quarters.
SpaceX has about 13B shares outstanding; 555.6M shares, about 4% of the company, were sold, while 96% stayed locked up after the $85.7B raise.
About 20% of the deal went to retail, said to be 3-6x normal individual-investor allocation; books reportedly hit ~$150B against a $75B raise, and retail sold out before the open.
First earnings is set for August 4 after the close, with Musk on the call at 4:30; consensus is $6.87B revenue and a $0.28/share loss versus Q1's just under $4.7B revenue and a $1.27/share loss.
Starlink had 10.3M subscribers across 164 countries as of March, up from 8.9M at the end of 2025, while ARPU slid as growth shifted to lower-income markets.
SpaceX raised Starlink plan prices by up to $10/month in May, and the August 4 report is expected to show whether that increase stuck.
A $7.7B quarter annualizes to >$30B versus $12.7B for all of 2025, so August 4 is framed as the check on where management thinks AI capex stops; options imply about a 15% move either way.
August 6 is the first insider sell date: up to 20% of restricted holdings, about 911.5M shares, can be sold, expanding tradeable shares from about 5% of the company to roughly 12%.
The unlock staircase continues with about 7% on August 21, another about 7% on September 10, a larger ~28% block tied to Q3 results, and the rest on December 8, when about 40% of the company becomes tradeable for the first time.
Founders Fund's 2008 position is up on the order of 60,000%, and low-hundreds-billions rounds are up 20x or more; August is described as the first month in 18 years with liquidity, which could turn into selling if holders want cash or worry about valuation.
SpaceX agreed to buy Cursor in an all-stock deal valued at $60B expected to close in Q3, adding about 3.5% dilution into the same window as the lock-up releases.
With about 13B shares outstanding, every $10 of share price equals $130B of market cap; the listed levels are $116 = $1.51T, $107 = $1.39T, $100 = $1.3T, $85 = $1.1T, $75 = $975B, and $65 = $845B.
Starlink is assigned $11.4B of 2025 revenue and $4.42B of segment operating profit, about a 39% margin, with consensus seeing margins in the low 40s as it scales.
Projected Starlink revenue is $17B in 2026, $24B in 2027, and $32B-$34B in 2028 at a 43% operating margin, implying about $14B of operating profit and about $11B after tax in 2028.
A 40x-50x multiple on 2028 earnings discounted back 2 years puts Starlink at $400B-$550B today, midpoint $475B; launch is valued at $80B-$150B midpoint $115B, and AI at about $450B midpoint after combining hard assets, contracted compute, and option value.
The AI segment is described as $3.2B in revenue, a $6.36B operating loss, and $12.7B of 2025 capex running toward $30B annualized in 2026, though a contracted compute deal brings in $150M/month from July through 2029.
Adding $475B for Starlink, $115B for launch, and $450B for AI gets to about $1.04T net cash; $1.1T divided by 13B shares equals about $85/share as the base case.
The bear case is Starlink $400B, launch $80B, AI $250B, or about $780B and $60/share; the bull case is Starlink $550B, launch $150B, AI $700B, or $1.45T and about $112/share.
At $116, the stock is above the top end of the optimistic scenario; around $95 it is roughly fair value with short-term losses still likely, around $75 the market is assigning zero to AI, and below $65 it is priced at the pessimistic case on all three segments.
ZENA spent the last 20 months buying 26 land surveying and inspection businesses, then added AI drones into those workflows and is now pointing that platform at the US defense market.
ZENA's drone-as-a-service model buys profitable low-tech field-service businesses, integrates Xena Drone's drones and AI analytics, cuts job costs, raises throughput, centralizes the back office, adds data analytics, and converts project work into recurring subscriptions.
On July 21, ZENA began scheduling technology demonstrations with US government defense agencies, starting with a first confirmed demo built around the IQ Nano, moving the defense thesis from test range to end user.
ZENA is still early, still proving itself, and likely needs more capital; the model is described as highly dependent on integration, policy support, and future financing, with dilution risk for shareholders.
Commercial drone-as-a-service is framed as a $16.5B market in 2025 growing about 24% annually to north of $150B within a decade, while the US Department of War requested about $13.4B for autonomy/autonomous systems plus $3.1B for counter-drone work in FY2026.
The sponsor says ZENA has legacy enterprise SaaS, drone-as-a-service, and integrated drone hardware/software lines; manufacturing spans a 22,000 square foot UAE plant, an Arizona site being commissioned for US domestic and military production, and Taiwan-based sensor supply, with the UAE plant able to make 10-15 Zena Drone 1000 units and 25+ IQ series drones per month.