SpaceX’s post-IPO collapse is framed as a float problem, not a business-break problem: the June 12 IPO took the valuation from roughly $1.75 trillion at the open to about $1.8 trillion today, about a third below the peak, while less than 5% of the float is tradable. The next catalyst is the early-August second quarterly report, which could unlock about 900 million more shares and triple the tradable pool, with more supply through year-end and some estimates putting insiders free to sell close to half the company by early September. The long-term bull case still rests on 670-plus orbital launches, 99%+ success, Starlink’s 9,600+ satellites and 12 million+ customers, and Starship’s full-reuse economics, but that case is now running into China’s reusable-booster progress, AI losses, and near-term selling pressure. VTIx is pitched separately as a small-cap VR and defense training name with Meta distribution, military usage across all four branches, and an early-stage, capital-intensive rollout.
SpaceX’s post-June 12 IPO slide took the valuation from roughly $1.75 trillion at the open to about $1.8 trillion today, about one-third below the peak and roughly $1 trillion of market value erased from the top.
Less than 5% of SpaceX’s float is tradable: about 13 billion shares exist, about 555 million were sold to the public, and about 95% remains locked with Elon, employees, and early investors.
The violent move is tied to the tiny float, not month-to-month business changes: small buying pushed the stock up and small selling pushed it down.
After the second quarterly results in early August, about 900 million shares may become sellable for the first time, lifting tradable shares from about 555 million to around 1.5 billion.
That unlock would triple the tradable pool, with more unlocks expected through year-end and some estimates saying insiders could be free to sell close to half the company by early September.
Projected downside levels were 150, 135, under 120, then around $100 support at peak unlock, assuming insiders sell only lightly rather than aggressively.
SpaceX confirmed its first-ever bond sale, reported at around $20 billion, to pay off a bridge loan from when SpaceX absorbed Elon’s AI company xAI.
China’s successful Long March booster landing matters because SpaceX’s moat was landing and reusing boosters to make space cheaper; SpaceX is still ahead, but no longer alone in reusable rockets.
SpaceX’s AI division lost millions last year and billions more already this year, while Anthropic is paying over $1 billion a month and Google close to $1 billion a month, which is presented as real revenue; the watch item is whether the AI loss gap is closing or widening.
SpaceX is spending heavily on AI compute, and the companies contracted to build that compute have seen their stock prices rise.
Through 2026, the stock faces headwinds from the tiny float, coming supply, hype unwinding, competition, and AI losses, while the long-term case remains separate from the short-term plumbing problem.
SpaceX has flown roughly 670 orbital launches with a success rate above 99%, and Falcon 9 flew 165 times last year alone.
Since 2023, SpaceX has carried more than 80% of all mass humanity has put into orbit, more than every other company, country, and space agency combined.
Starlink has over 9,600 satellites in orbit and more than 12 million active customers across 164 markets, with recurring subscription revenue from users where nobody else can reach them.
The next Starlink step is satellite internet directly into phones with no dish or equipment, aimed at dead zones, rural roads, oceans, mountains, and disaster zones where towers are down.
Starship is designed to be fully reusable and carry about five times the payload of Falcon 9; if it flies routinely, the cost per kilogram to orbit could fall sharply and spawn new industries.
The FAA has cleared Starship to fly again, and the next test flight is scheduled for Thursday evening this week.
VTIx’s Omni VR treadmills are pitched for 360° movement in fictional game worlds and photorealistic real-world replicas, with the US military already using the technology across all four branches.
VTIx’s Omni One for Quest launched with Meta, earned Made for Meta certification, entered the Meta store, and targets full-body gaming sessions and workouts up to 700 calories per hour, with a 4.8-star average rating and a 2025 Auggie Award.
VTIx says new orders in December 2025 were 60% higher than December 2024, availability expanded across Germany, the UK, France, additional EU fronts, and Canada, and the company has capacity to produce up to 3,000 units per month.
VTIx’s defense business centers on VTW systems: one system supports 12+ soldiers simultaneously, targets gross margins above 70%, and uses AI Gaussian splatting to turn 360-degree footage into walkable 3D environments in hours instead of weeks.
VTIx formed a special committee to evaluate acquisitions in defense training and simulation, targeting businesses with government contract vehicles and recurring defense revenue in the $10 million to $50 million range, while warning that the company is still early, capital intensive, and exposed to dilution and contract risk.