Seasonality points to an S&P 500 correction starting in the August-to-September window, with the setup framed as a shallow pullback, July strength, then a bigger late-summer drop. The last three midterm years — 2022, 2018, and 2014 — are used as the template: each featured an early correction, a rally, then a 10% to 20% decline after a late-summer or early-fall top. Semis are the likely catalyst, and the same back-half weakness is tied to a possible Bitcoin cycle bottom if stocks and BTC roll over together. The video leans on the idea that 2026 YTD now resembles 2018 and 2014 more than a clean uptrend.
S&P 500 is framed as potentially dropping 10% to 20% starting in the August-to-September window.
A prior call expected a shallow June correction followed by a July rally, not a larger June top.
July has been green for the S&P 500 every year since 2015.
August and September are the S&P 500's two red months on average.
The seasonal setup is described as a distribution phase: shallow drop, rally back up, new highs, sideways action, then a larger drop.
The current pattern is said to have already had the first drop and now be rallying back up before a likely sideways phase and then a bigger late-summer decline.
The last three midterm years are said to match the pattern: 2022 topped in mid-August and the S&P 500 fell about 19%; 2018 topped in mid-September and fell about 20%; 2014 started its correction in September and fell about 10%.
Across 2022, 2018, and 2014, the common pattern is summarized as a 10% to 20% drop after a late-summer or early-fall top.
2010 is flagged as an outlier: it had an August drop, but a larger decline had already happened earlier in the year.
2026 YTD S&P 500 ROI is said to resemble 2018 and 2014 in the sequence of early correction, rally, then larger correction.
2022 is described as more or less a bear market, but still had a rally around this time and then a correction starting in the August time frame.
An average of 2022, 2018, and 2014 is used to support the expectation of an early correction, summer rally, then another correction in the back half of the year.
The stock market is expected to stay weak for the rest of the midterm year after that back-half correction.
Bitcoin is expected to find its market-cycle bottom in the stock-market correction that occurs in the back half of the midterm year.
If Bitcoin weakens in August or September while stocks are getting the expected correction, the four-year cycle could line up and produce a major BTC market-cycle bottom, potentially alongside an S&P 500 low.
The likely source of the S&P 500 correction is guessed to be semis, with fears around the semiconductor industry after a run-up that has left semis pretty elevated.