The setup is bearish on the broader tape but selective bullishness remains in specific names: SPY, QQQ, NVDA, AMZN, META, TSLA and much of big tech still sit under sell signals, while MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, NFLX, DUOLINGO, CRM and NOW are framed as the pockets still working. The market is positioned around the Fed, with a 1.38B liquidity injection this morning, no expected rate hike, and a possible September hike still the framing; a softer Thursday PCE and getting through big tech earnings plus the Fed are the main upside catalysts. The S&P 500’s top pattern and SPY’s 745 level are the main bearish regime markers, with a daily MACD zero-line cross down adding pressure. Tesla hitting $300 on Tuesday confirmed the prior call, while DUOLINGO, CRM, and NOW are presented as actionable momentum names with explicit upside levels and stops.
Fed injected $1.38B into markets right after the open to keep banks and financial markets running smoothly ahead of the rate decision.
No rate hike is expected now; the market is framed as wanting reassurance that the planned hike would come in September, not cuts.
Google’s capex selloff was followed by the rest of the market front-running bad news and selling off from last week into today.
S&P 500 has a bearish diamond pattern at the top and has not broken yet, but the tape is said to want to go south.
Midterm election years are framed as having a minimum 20% drawdown.
SPY crossed under 745 to flip into the bearish trend; a move back above 745 could change the market posture overnight.
A daily MACD cross down through the zero line is another bearish input, alongside the first downside MACD cross that triggered the 'trust red' call.
TSLA hit $300 on Tuesday, matching the prior expectation that it would print $300 on the nose by Monday or Tuesday.
A recovery is expected closer to the Fed meeting if the market’s Fed problem doesn’t materialize or the Fed sounds more confident markets are stabilizing.
Thursday PCE is a watch item: softer-than-expected inflation could rally the market off the low.
The setup still has to get through big tech earnings and the Fed before the described rebound can play out.
The one-hour MACD zero-line tool shows MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, and NFLX in the bullish camp; SPY, NVDA, AMZN, QQQ, META, and TSLA remain on sell signals and can go lower.
On the four-hour view, only AAPL and NFLX are bullish; on the daily, SPY, AAPL, and META are still on buy signals while NVDA, AMZN, NFLX, QQQ, MSFT, GOOG, and TSLA have been in trouble for a while.
Semiconductors are still described as 'in a world of pain,' while SaaS is working, led by DUOLINGO and CRM.
DUOLINGO must get above 142; if it does, the next target is 161.16, with the note that if it gets above 142 tomorrow it can keep running.
CRM cleared the watched 170 close and moved up to 184, with room to extend toward $200.
NOW was said to have gotten above 10348 and now has an immediate target of 11750, with a stop loss planned.